Republican lawmakers in Montana wield a supermajority that gives them the power to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment that would break the link between abortion rights and the right to privacy in the state鈥檚 constitution.
But so far, they haven鈥檛 sought to ask voters to make the change, a rewrite that would allow lawmakers to ban or further restrict abortion after the U.S. Supreme Court gave that power back to the states last year.
While 14 states have near-total bans on abortion since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year, Montana is one example of how, in some Republican-controlled states, the abortion policy battle will likely play out for a while.
鈥淭his takes time,鈥� said Montana House Speaker , a Republican. 鈥淚t took years to overturn the wrong decision of Roe v. Wade.鈥�
Montana is 鈥� most recently joined by South Carolina 鈥� where courts have ruled that abortion access is a constitutional right, and legal battles to dismiss or entrench those rights are picking up. In Florida, reproductive health providers are on abortion in the state Supreme Court, citing its long-standing interpretation that the state鈥檚 right to privacy extends to abortion. over what standards Iowa will adopt after the state Supreme Court that due process and equal protections secured abortion access.
Meanwhile, in January, Minnesota 鈥� which already had a court ruling that abortion is a constitutional right 鈥� and expanded the right to reproductive health care. The same month, struck down a ban on abortions after six weeks, joining states that defined abortion as a right. There, abortion opponents and advocates alike expect more attempts by the Republican-controlled legislature to whittle away access.
In Montana, Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte鈥檚 administration a that said the state鈥檚 constitutional right to privacy extends to abortions. Republicans could bypass the courts and go straight to the state鈥檚 voters to make that change without the support of Democratic legislators. That鈥檚 after Republican lawmakers clinched a supermajority 鈥� two-thirds of the legislative seats, allowing the GOP to overturn vetoes and forward constitutional amendments to the ballot.
Republican lawmakers have introduced so far in the legislative session that began in January, but none has dealt with abortion. That may be due to the uncertainty over how Montanans and even Republican lawmakers would react to such a proposal after voters in other states sided with abortion rights advocates on ballot issues in last year鈥檚 elections.
Kansas and Kentucky voters rejected constitutional amendments that would have declared there is no right to an abortion. Michigan, Vermont, and California voters codified abortion rights in their constitutions. And Montana voters rejected a that would have created criminal penalties for health workers who do not attempt to save the life of a baby, embryo, or fetus after a botched abortion or other birth.
, a political scientist who teaches at Montana State University and Carroll College, said Republicans, unsure of where voters stand, are likely hesitant to strike at the state constitution.
鈥淲hat Republicans are doing right now is they are testing the waters,鈥� Bennion said. 鈥淭he midterms scared a lot of Republicans.鈥�
There are also signs of division within the party鈥檚 ranks. The state Senate recently debated a bill that would add to state law does not extend to abortion. The bill passed the Senate 28-21, and is now being considered in the House, but six of the 34 Senate Republicans voted against it.
Republicans hold 102 of Montana鈥檚 150 state legislative seats, and, although they can pass laws with a simple majority, they need a 100-member supermajority to put a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot. And since the state鈥檚 Democrats have pushed back against new abortion restrictions, Republicans can鈥檛 afford too many people splitting from ranks if they propose a referendum.
Some Republicans who voted against the bill said the issue to them wasn鈥檛 abortion, but the potential encroachment on medical privacy. has supported bills in past legislative sessions that would limit how far into a pregnancy someone can have an abortion, but he said he couldn鈥檛 vote for the recent bill.
鈥淚鈥檓 not for abortion, but I鈥檓 not really for trying to dictate people鈥檚 rights either,鈥� Gillespie said.
Republican , another 鈥渘o鈥� vote, said he heard from people who, like him, believe there is a time and place for abortions. 鈥淭here are more people that think like me that don鈥檛 necessarily have the courage to vote exactly like me,鈥� Welborn said.
Senate GOP spokesperson Kyle Schmauch noted that it鈥檚 still early in the session, and that a constitutional amendment hasn鈥檛 been ruled out. But it鈥檚 unclear how far people want restrictions to go.
鈥淢ontanans as a whole want to see at least some restrictions on abortion,鈥� Schmauch said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we鈥檝e got a real reliable sense of exactly voters鈥� opinions on all the different regulations.鈥�
Democratic lawmakers have introduced reproductive health bills to expand access to care, such as requiring insurers to cover , in what they call an effort to find common ground. They also have a draft bill to codify the right to abortion in state law, but as the minority party, the odds are against their proposal advancing far.
鈥淲e鈥檙e expecting to play defense hard and to watch Republicans try to take away Montanans鈥� right to make their own decisions about their body,鈥� said .