She and her husband have not had health coverage for the past two years, Bates said, because their employment is unsteady and they earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, the public health insurance for those with disabilities or low incomes.

When the GOP-led Congress allowed enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies — which helped lower the cost of plans sold on the marketplace — to expire at the end of last year, Bates’ mother-in-law dropped her plan, too.

Bates and her husband have a 2-year-old son. The mother-in-law also cares for a son who has autism. They all live together in a trailer home, spending about a third of their family income on prescription medications and opting for trips to the emergency room — often their main destination for medical care, since they aren’t billed up front.

It’s stressful, Bates said. Yet despite their situation, she said she remains “all in” for President Donald Trump. But she also said she’s recognizing flaws in his leadership.

“He’s trying,” Bates said. “It’s just a lot more other things have his attention.”

Georgia’s 14th District is the . It’s the district Marjorie Taylor Greene, who rose to prominence as one of Trump’s most vocal and loyal supporters, represented from 2021 to January 2026.

Greene made a notable pivot from the president last year when she publicly bashed Republicans’ handling of the enhanced ACA subsidies, which helped — along with her own adult children, she said — afford healthcare.

The following month, after Greene Trump of focusing too much on “foreign wars” and ignoring Americans’ economic struggles, the president attacked Greene and said he would no longer support her. Soon after, she announced that from Congress.

Still, many others in this semirural, exurban district, like Bates, remain loyal to Trump, even as more people go uninsured and face rising costs as a result.

Bates isn’t alone in feeling the pinch of healthcare costs this year. Nationally, 37% of Republican voters surveyed in June for said healthcare costs were “extremely important.” More than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support the Make America Great Again movement said that Congress did the wrong thing by letting the enhanced subsidies expire, according to released in March. And 62% of ACA marketplace enrollees put the most blame for the expiration on Republicans (30%) or Trump (32%).

But, as the November midterm elections approach, policy experts don’t anticipate the issue of healthcare costs will lead to a major shift in how people vote in deeply conservative areas like Georgia’s 14th District, even as policies that once benefited them are rolled back.

“They’re willing to stick with the party line,” said , a professor of political science at the University of Georgia. “As long as Donald Trump and other Republicans are saying Obamacare is bad, they’re going to continue to buy into that idea,” Bullock said, “even when it’s against their economic self-interest.”

Obamacare Still a ‘Dirty Word’

When the ACA was passed in 2010, voted for it. Now, 16 years later, Obamacare is still a “dirty word” for many conservatives, said , a professor of social medicine at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

While previously the GOP’s goal was to “repeal and replace” the ACA, the current political strategy is “effectively rolling back some of the coverage gains,” he said.

According to a dashboard from NYU Langone Health’s Department of Population Health, of people younger than 65 living in Georgia’s 14th District were uninsured in 2024, which is higher than the . And in 2023, relied on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, known as CHIP, according to Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families.

Last summer, Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which restricted ACA enrollment periods, added monthly fees, and imposed new documentation requirements for enrollees. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the number of uninsured people in the U.S. would increase by about 15 million people over 10 years as a result of the new law, the expiration of the ACA subsidies, and other ACA changes. With the enhanced subsidies expiring at the end of 2025, ACA enrollment fell by this year. In Georgia, enrollment dropped by .

Greene’s not a fan of the ACA. She said her family’s health insurance premiums skyrocketed after it became law in 2010. But last year she surprised those on both sides of the aisle when she openly criticized her Republican colleagues over the subsidies.

“I’m going to go against everyone on this issue,” she wrote in an , “because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district.”

In a June interview with Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News in Cumming, Georgia, Greene described the end of the subsidies as “catastrophic.”

“All over the country, people are constantly outraged over the cost of health insurance,” she said.

Like Greene, Bates has also wavered in her support for Trump. In addition to her frustration about the ACA subsidies expiring, she said the Iran war and inflation have also hit her wallet.

“I just don’t feel like he’s doing the best he could,” she said. “He did great his first term. But this term, it’s just not OK.”

While Republicans’ policies have made it more difficult for people to qualify for Medicaid and led to the end of the subsidies that made ACA marketplace plans more affordable, a clear plan to improve the U.S. healthcare system hasn’t emerged, Greene and policy experts say.

In December, House Speaker the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act. Touted as an alternative to extending ACA subsidies, was intended to lower premiums and increase healthcare access.

But the Congressional Budget Office found the bill would people by 100,000 a year from 2027 to 2035. While the House passed the measure in December, nearly nine months later the Senate hasn’t voted on it.

“It’s a Republican-controlled House, Republican-controlled Senate, Republican-controlled White House,” Greene said. “If Republicans had a plan, this was the perfect scenario to get it passed. You should have all the votes — get it done. And they’re not doing anything.”

Sticking to the Party Line

Despite such criticisms of Republicans for lacking a healthcare plan, voters in deeply conservative areas such as Georgia’s 14th District are sticking with Trump and his allies.

In April, the district elected Trump-backed Clay Fuller to replace Greene, though he won with than she had. He’s up for election again in November for a full congressional term. The University of Georgia’s Bullock said flipping the district from red to blue is unlikely.

Fuller’s office did not respond to interview requests for this report. But in a Q&A with the ahead of his April runoff with Democrat Shawn Harris, Fuller said that the expanded ACA subsidies, introduced under the Biden administration during the covid pandemic, were not a “a long-term solution.” Lowering healthcare costs would come from increasing competition and reducing federal overreach, he said.

Harris, who’s facing off with Fuller again in November, told Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News that the GOP strategy for the midterms is to continue to play off Republicans’ long-standing negative perceptions about Obamacare.

When people in the community are asked whether they support Obamacare, “they’re probably going to say no,” Harris said. But when asked about the Affordable Care Act, people tend to say, “‘Oh, yes, I need to have that,’” he said.

“They don’t realize it’s one in the same,” Harris said, adding that Republicans “sold everybody a bill of goods.”

As candidates campaign, they need to be in tune with their constituents, Greene said.

“That’s where I think they’re completely missing the mark,” she said. “They’re totally tone deaf to what Americans’ needs really are. And we need a serious solution.”

Bates considers healthcare among her top concerns. She said she doesn’t think anybody, including Trump, can make healthcare more affordable. But she hopes politicians will talk with people like her to better understand the burdens that consumers face.

“I honestly wish Congress would actually spend time in the life that we live,” she said. “They just sit behind their desks, and they don’t know what’s really going on in life, because they make so much money.”

Are you struggling to afford your health insurance? Have you decided to forgo coverage? Click here to contact Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and share your story.

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“Maybe this is my sign to try the full-time music thing,” Morgan recalled thinking. “Step one in that was: Get health insurance again.”

Austin bills itself as “the Live Music Capital of the World,” but it for the artists who provide the city with its cultural cachet — and help drive its tourism revenue.

Morgan has supported himself by patching together gigs with a number of bands. To help pay for health insurance, he turned to a local nonprofit, the , or HAAM.

“That’s part of being able to make this whole thing work,” Morgan said.

HAAM subsidizes the monthly insurance premiums of local musicians who purchase plans through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. To fund the roughly $4 million program, it works with Central Health, a public agency that provides healthcare resources for low-income residents of Austin and surrounding Travis County. Many of the performing artists pay $0 toward monthly premiums.

After more than a decade, including through the coronavirus pandemic, the assistance program has become an established and reliable financial support for Austin’s musician community.

This year, after Congress failed to extend pandemic-era subsidies, premiums skyrocketed for many ACA plans. A recent report found that 5 million people nationwide had . HAAM helped blunt the impact for its members. It has emerged as a potential model for other cities hoping to make healthcare more affordable for key populations and industries.

A Growing Idea

Texas had the among states, with 19% of people age 64 and under uninsured, as of 2024.

Even before the launch of the ACA marketplace in 2014, HAAM had spent a decade connecting musicians with free and low-cost care at clinics and hospitals in and around Austin. But roughly 85% of HAAM members remained uninsured, leaving them exposed when traveling to gigs in other cities and states.

“When the Affordable Care Act came out, and we knew it was here to stay, it really made sense for us to start getting our musicians fully insured,” said , HAAM’s chief strategy officer.

Similar nonprofits in other U.S. cities with strong live music cultures, such as , , and , help musicians get medical care. With the advent of the ACA, some of these organizations began helping musicians navigate the sometimes complex enrollment process for the online marketplaces, though they stopped short of pitching in on premiums.

But the team at HAAM recognized that without direct support to help pay premiums, many of their members would still struggle to retain coverage.

“When you think about the average HAAM member making about $30,000 a year, there’s no way that they would be able to spend a third of their income on healthcare,” Blair said.

The organization’s membership has grown by 77% to more than 3,300 people since HAAM began offering premium assistance, and more than 90% of members are now insured.

To help subsidize costs for members, HAAM partnered with Central Health, which is Travis County’s public hospital district — a type of health agency in Texas charged with using tax dollars to fund safety net healthcare for low-income residents. Central Health also operates the nonprofit , which offers marketplace insurance to Travis County residents.

To qualify, HAAM members must enroll in one of Sendero’s silver-level, or benchmark, plans. If their income is between one and two times the federal poverty level, Central Health pays the balance of their monthly premium after federal tax credits are applied. For members who fall above that income range, HAAM offers a more limited subsidy, covering 50% of their premium balances.

In 2017, HAAM helped set up a similar program in Denton, a college town north of Dallas that has served as a , from Meat Loaf to Norah Jones.

The Denton Music and Arts Collaborative works differently: It connects members with an independent insurance agent who helps them find the best health plan for their needs. The nonprofit then offers members a monthly subsidy of $100.

The subsidies are a way of keeping Denton’s culture of jazz and “weird art rock” alive, said the collaborative’s president, Jennifer Kapinos.

“More and more people were maybe graduating college and leaving and going to find better opportunities in other places,” Kapinos said. “People who had lived here a long time suddenly were finding it harder and harder to afford to be here.”

In Austin, other sectors have been watching HAAM’s work. In 2025, , a nonprofit that advocates for restaurant workers, launched a small pilot program with Central Health to help local food workers enroll in Sendero plans and cover their premiums.

Kit Abney Spelce, vice president of operations for Central Health, said partnering with an advocacy group focused on a particular workforce is key because simply announcing “free insurance for you” doesn’t mean people will sign up.

“We are very much dependent on our partner entity to go out and connect with the community, to have that relationship and that trust,” she said.

Navigating Federal Headwinds

Though premium payments often increase year over year, the 2026 plan year was particularly expensive, .

Citing medical and pharmacy costs, Sendero by an average of 16% for its enrollees. At the same time, Congress allowed the pandemic-era enhanced premium tax credits to expire, reducing the federal subsidies that many marketplace customers relied on.

“Our premiums for our members went up 60% from one year to the next,” Blair said.

HAAM stepped up its fundraising into 2026, but it wasn’t enough to cover everyone who requested assistance. They had to turn away hundreds of qualified people. Still, they were able to buffer existing members, said Spelce with Central Health.

“We’re going to make sure their monthly premium is paid every month,” she said.

A Viable, if Limited, Model

Beyond the eligible musicians they turned away in 2026, another population remains out of HAAM’s coverage reach for premium assistance: Austin’s poorest residents.

Under the ACA, the marketplace plans that HAAM helps subsidize are for low- and middle-income earners, but the people with the very lowest incomes — below 100% of the federal poverty level, set at — are supposed to be covered by expanded Medicaid.

But Texas is one of 10 states that chose not to expand Medicaid after the ACA became law, so many of the poorest Texans remain uncovered.

With no federal subsidies available for that group, HAAM and Central Health have tried to develop separate solutions for this subpopulation. Central Health has its , an alternative to health insurance that gives low-income, uninsured people access to a network of local care providers. HAAM has also with primary care providers to serve its uninsured members — but Blair acknowledges it’s not an equivalent benefit to what Medicaid expansion would offer.

“It’s not a very sustainable solution, especially when there’s a really good alternative,” Blair said.

This article is from a partnership that includes , , and Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

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If the state Office of Health Care Affordability adopts the fines next week, hospitals, medical groups, insurers, and others could face penalties that amount to as much as 125% of the total they spend above the state’s annual growth targets.

The penalty proposal comes after healthcare entities in California were asked to limit growth by 3.5% last year and ramp down to 3% by 2029. Seven hospitals that state officials consider particularly expensive face even smaller growth targets: 1.8% in 2026, dropping to 1.6% by 2029.

Consumer advocates argue that state financial deterrents are critical to bring relief to millions of Californians struggling with high insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses. Hospitals accounted for in U.S. health spending from 2022 to 2024, compared with 11% from retail prescription drugs. But adding teeth to those targets sets up a fight with the powerful hospital industry, which has a challenging the spending limits as unreasonable. Hospitals warned that they will cut back on vital services, including in emergency rooms, obstetrics, and behavioral health.

Healthcare industry representatives said the state affordability office hasn’t accounted for year-to-year volatility or other factors beyond the industry’s control, such as rising minimum wages, state earthquake retrofit requirements, and expensive new drugs.

“They’re building the plane while flying it,” said Ben Johnson, group vice president for financial policy at the California Hospital Association. “We know improvements in affordability are needed, but we have serious questions about how and about what the unintended consequences could be under OHCA’s rather stringent approaches.”

When calculating penalties, California regulators would consider various factors, including a healthcare entity’s financial situation, its market impact, and the gravity and number of offenses, according to a in June. And entities would first be given opportunities to implement performance improvement plans to bring their spending into line before penalties are imposed. For those that don’t comply, the board is considering penalties of $10,000 a day or a flat $500,000.

The penalties, which the affordability office’s eight-member board is required by to adopt, are slated for discussion, and a potential vote, at the board’s . The soonest healthcare providers would be subject to penalties is 2028, because it’s expected it will take two years to collect and publicly report spending data to measure against the 2026 targets. The state is still collecting data on how entities performed against the 2025 targets, which aren’t enforceable, according to Andrew DiLuccia, a spokesperson for the California Department of Health Care Access and Information.

States Set Targets

California is one of at least eight states that have set spending targets as part of an expanding effort to curb soaring healthcare spending across the nation. Connecticut, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Rhode Island have also authorized the use of some type of financial penalty. The specifics of each vary widely, although so far no state has applied them.

A by the California Health Care Foundation found that 4 out of 10 state residents said they had medical debt, and 6 in 10 reported that they or a family member had skipped or delayed medical care in the previous 12 months because of cost. Nationwide, about say it is difficult to afford healthcare costs.

After Rosalyn Book got stiches on her chin, the elementary school teacher received a $15,000 ER bill from a local hospital, despite having insurance. Many teachers in her district leave because they can’t afford the cost of healthcare and insurance premiums, she said.

“The healthcare charges are just insanity, and what we get as patients for the care, it’s not the best either,” said Book, president of the Monterey Bay Teachers Association. “If you’re a working, regular individual in terms of how much you make, the cost of living and especially the healthcare is just not doable.”

Meanwhile, hospitals are warning there’s a risk of more closures. According to Yale University’s , 17 hospitals have closed in the state since 2016, compared with only six openings.

Hospitals and other healthcare providers have said the proposed multimillion-dollar penalties are too steep and could destabilize their operations at a time when they’re facing funding challenges, including massive federal cuts to Medicaid, the end of enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans, and a sharp rise in uninsured patients. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by congressional Republicans and signed by President Donald Trump last summer, is expected to reduce federal Medicaid spending by more than — including by in California — and increase the rolls of the uninsured in the U.S. by over a decade.

Johnson said hospitals raise prices on commercial payers to offset the expense of treating uninsured patients, as well as patients on Medicaid and Medicare, which can reimburse care providers at rates that fall short of treatment costs.

In addition, said Anete Millers, vice president of legal and regulatory affairs at the California Association of Health Plans, tax increases on managed-care plans recently to offset federal Medicaid cuts will force plans to increase their prices for consumers.

“Some spending pressures originate outside of the control of health plans and are the result of public policy decisions rather than underlying changes in healthcare utilization or efficiency,” she told the affordability office’s .

Kristof Stremikis, the director of market analysis and insight at the nonprofit California Health Care Foundation, acknowledged that external forces can drive costs but said that plenty of unnecessary spending is within the healthcare system’s control, such as administrative waste and duplicative tests and procedures. of U.S. healthcare spending is considered wasteful, according to .

Elizabeth Mitchell, a former Office of Health Care Affordability board member whose term ended in May, agreed.

“Every business has external challenges,” said Mitchell, who is now president and CEO of Purchaser Business Group on Health, a nonprofit coalition representing large employers. “The hospital industry has not taken accountability to actually manage costs. I have heard those excuses for decades, and at some point, they have to make changes.”

First Step To Bring Down Costs

of five states with cost growth benchmarks, published in June, found that some have succeeded in modestly slowing healthcare spending, particularly those with enforcement mechanisms. However, spending growth in most states has still set. 

Jeremy Vandehey, a consultant with the Peterson-Milbank Program for Sustainable Health Care Costs, said setting benchmarks and collecting data to analyze which entities meet them is only a first step. Armed with information about what and who is driving up costs, states are more empowered to take additional action, such as imposing penalties or regulating prices, to bring down costs, he said.

“I don’t think anybody in any state is declaring victory on healthcare costs, but I wouldn’t say that that means the programs are a failure,” Vandehey said. “In all of these states, there’s much more robust conversations happening about, OK, we haven’t solved our cost crisis, so we need additional action.”

This article first appeared on Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and is republished here under a .

Rovner talks about the fallout from Trump administration cuts to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies. She also shares why she thinks healthcare will play a big role in the 2028 presidential election, and how she hopes her new podcast project — “How Would You Fix it?” — will contribute to the discussion.

You can hear “How Would You Fix It?” on Rovner’s weekly What the Health? From Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News podcast, in which she speaks with newsmakers and journalists from top media outlets about the latest health policy headlines. 

Credits

An Arm and a Leg is a co-production of Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and Public Road Productions.

For more from the team at An Arm and a Leg, subscribe to its weekly newsletter, . You can also follow the show on , , , and . And if you’ve got stories to tell about the healthcare system, the producers would love to .

To hear all Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News podcasts, click here.

And subscribe to An Arm and a Leg on , , , or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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Enrollment in Affordable Care Act plans fell by nearly 3 million this year to about 19.2 million, following steep premium increases by insurers and the Republican-led Congress’ unwillingness to extend more generous premium subsidies. On average, ACA customers in premium payments this year, a 58% increase from 2025, according to KFF, while their deductibles — the amount consumers must pay annually before insurers pick up their share — have climbed 37% to nearly $3,800 a year.

“These are real people who are now forced to make impossible choices,” said Annalyse Keller, a spokesperson for a large coalition of lobby organizations for the healthcare industry, including insurers and patient advocacy groups.

But a released in June, written mostly by President Donald Trump’s political appointees and allies, asserts that 5.6 million people were fraudulently enrolled in ACA plans in 2025, and that the Trump administration removed 2.9 million of them — the same number as the 2026 drop in enrollment.

There’s little dispute that the ACA suffers from some fraud, as do most government programs. The administration said it has taken actions to tighten the enrollment process to thwart brokers who fraudulently enroll people without their knowledge.

For example, the administration in August 2025 halted a Biden-era initiative that allowed low-income people to sign up for coverage year-round. Regulators 1.5 million people since 2025 for reasons such as not meeting a requirement to file their taxes over two years or being concurrently enrolled in another health program, such as Medicaid, which is not allowed.

But health policy experts say that the administration is overstating the extent of ACA fraud and that the HHS report relies on debatable assumptions, such as that all sign-ups under the year-round enrollment program for low-income people were potentially fraudulent. ACA enrollment fell off a cliff because of escalating prices for insurance plans, policy analysts say, which the administration’s done nothing to stem.

“The top-level claim” that all the decline in enrollment since 2025 is because of improper or fraudulent enrollees leaving the market “is not remotely credible,” said , a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “We know that lots of people have seen higher premiums, and there’s really good evidence that when premiums go up, people drop coverage.”

Healthcare costs are a big concern for voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, and both Democrats and Republicans are trying to spin the issue to their advantage. Democrats argue more needs to be done to make insurance less expensive for consumers, while Republicans are trying to focus on the need to save taxpayer dollars from fraud.

found that voters trust Democrats over Republicans to address healthcare costs (37% vs. 26%). The poll also found, though, that 55% of Republican voters consider it extremely important for candidates to address healthcare fraud, more than any other issue, showing that the White House’s effort to shift focus from costs has had some success with its own supporters.

But Jonathan Oberlander, a professor of health policy and management at the University of North Carolina, questioned whether the fraud narrative will hold up as voters continue to struggle with rising costs.

“It will be cold comfort to the very real persons who could no longer afford coverage and dropped their plans,” he said in an email to Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

How We Got Here

Under President Joe Biden, Congress that included more generous tax subsidies for people enrolled in Obamacare, starting in 2021. Those enhanced subsidies lowered premium payments, for a large enough tax credit to reduce their monthly payment to zero. The Biden-era law also allowed wealthier households to get assistance.

ACA coverage essentially doubled, from just over 11 million Americans in 2021 to more than 22 million in 2025, according to the HHS report.

Republicans and conservative groups argue that the growth wasn’t driven only by people newly enrolling because of lower premiums. Instead, they say, the enhanced subsidies, along with other Biden-era policies — including easing income verification requirements for some enrollees — invited fraud. Unscrupulous, commission-seeking insurance brokers found it easier to sign people up for coverage, often without their knowledge, while ordinary consumers could more easily fudge their income and qualify for the largest subsidy possible.

The conservative Paragon Health Institute’s president, Brian Blase, wrote that the HHS report’s conclusion on the scope of improper enrollment is likely an undercount. He remains unconvinced by the arguments that rising premiums are to blame for the sharp drop in ACA enrollment, saying subsidies remain generous for many people.

The Administration’s Current Targets

The debate will continue as more enrollment data emerges from the federal marketplace and the exchanges run by states. Some policy experts — including the consulting group Wakely — expect the year to end with the number of ACA policyholders down by .

Trump’s regulators will likely connect further drops with anti-fraud efforts. The HHS report alleges there are potentially millions more who remain improperly enrolled. The report’s authors noted that some of the administration’s anti-fraud proposals have been blocked by court rulings.

HHS released June 27, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pats Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, on the back for the number of canceled ACA plans so far. Oz threatens potential ACA hucksters: “Don’t walk away from us, run! Because we are going to find you.”

In an email responding to Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News’ questions, CMS spokesperson Christopher Krepich said his agency this summer will block ACA applications made by brokers that lack a Social Security number. By open enrollment this fall, CMS plans to require more identify-proofing when brokers enroll people and will limit a broker’s access to accounts until that person “has been authorized by the consumer to work on their behalf.”

How some suspicious enrollments will be removed is spelled out in emails sent in June to insurance carriers and obtained by Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

CMS told insurers that the agency will send them files for ACA accounts it believes are potentially unauthorized. Each flagged consumer account will have used a sales broker to enroll, be in a zero-premium plan, and lack a Social Security or an immigration documentation number — which Kennedy said in the video is a glaring sign of fraud.

Insurers must try to contact the enrollees to verify that they signed up for coverage. After 60 days, insurers must report policies they were unable to verify to CMS, which will cancel them.

Krepich wrote that carriers are cooperating with efforts to investigate accounts with missing or unverified information.

Policy experts, including Fiedler, note that the absence of a Social Security number doesn’t automatically prove fraud. While it could indicate a fake enrollee, a missing Social Security number might also be a simple oversight by the consumer or their broker, for example, or a newborn added to a parent’s account at birth, before they’ve received a number.

“That the administration put it in a report and did not summarily terminate these enrollments suggests they believe there is some mix of different circumstances,” Fiedler said.

The administration report singles out another segment of enrollments as suspicious: very low-income, subsidy-eligible people who shifted to plans that carry no monthly premium, suggesting “fraudulent agents and brokers are moving them to keep gaining commissions and avoid detection.” The report also cites ACA enrollees who file no medical claims as suspicious.

Policy experts question the assumptions behind those concerns.

Younger or lower-income people use healthcare less often, for example, which can explain why they may make no claims — particularly when they must first spend thousands of dollars out-of-pocket to meet high deductibles.

And very low-income people may switch to plans with higher deductibles in exchange for making no premium payment because they struggle to come up with the $50 or $80 monthly share that other plans might require.

“People are hurting for money,” said Florida insurance agent Jason Fine. “I literally have people who can’t afford to pay $15. I would not immediately assume that a person who went from a silver plan to a bronze plan, that it’s fraud,” referring to two types of ACA plans.

Fine said the administration needs to focus on better enforcement of existing rules, saying he has reported to regulators dozens of unscrupulous agents who have switched clients without authorization, yet none were barred from selling ACA policies.

He and other agents continue to push for adding multifactor identification, as banks and other financial institutions use, to the federal ACA marketplace. Some states that run their own exchanges have two-factor authentication or other types of ID verification and have not reported problems with unauthorized switching.

CMS — under both Biden and Trump — has not added two-factor authentication to the federal marketplace, healthcare.gov.

Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) to require it in June, but its prospects are murky.

“It will help reduce fraud,” said Ronnell Nolan, who leads Health Agents for America, a lobbying group that has long urged CMS to add the feature. Grothman’s legislation, she said, might “encourage CMS to do it themselves.”

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In preliminary filings with state regulators, insurers are seeking a median rate increase of 14% for 2027, according to in 16 states and the District of Columbia by the Peterson-Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health System Tracker.

If those rates are ultimately approved, it would be the second-highest increase since 2018.

That would be a “triple whammy” for consumers, said Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president and the director of the Program on the ACA at KFF, because they have already had to pay higher premiums in 2026 and saw the expiration of more generous tax credits to offset their premiums at the end of last year.

President Joe Biden sought to bolster the program known as Obamacare by enacting more generous tax subsidies, driving down out-of-pocket costs for consumers and increasing enrollment to more than 20 million Americans. But under President Donald Trump, Republicans have sought to scale back taxpayer support for ACA coverage, allowing the Biden-era enhanced subsidies to expire.

As of February, ACA enrollment had fallen by about 3 million people compared with the same time last year. While Cox and other policy experts say that’s because increased costs for the plans drove out people who feel they can get by without insurance, the Trump administration asserts that much of the enrollment growth under Biden .

The main factor driving proposed premium increases for 2027, as in most years, is the rising cost and use of medical care.

There’s growing demand for costly specialty medications and for the weight loss drugs known as GLP-1s, the Peterson-KFF report notes.

But the report also said that about 4 percentage points’ worth of the premium increases insurers proposed are due to lasting effects of the expiration of enhanced subsidies. Insurers expect that with young and healthy people leaving the program rather than paying higher premiums, their remaining customers will be older, sicker, and therefore costlier on average.

 “It’s likely that the people who dropped their coverage were also the healthier people, because sicker people were probably going to try to make it work however they could, to stretch their budget to keep their health insurance,” said Cox, of KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

In their rate filings, some insurers also said they had to raise premiums partly because of policy changes by the Trump administration that are expected to make it harder for some people to enroll.

Together with the expiration of the larger subsidies, the new rules “account for 12.7% of the requested rate change,” the insurer UnitedHealthcare wrote in its rate filing with New York state, according to the Peterson-KFF report.

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“He was on a nasty, dirty ground in front of a store,” recalled Sonja Smith, who is enraged about the circumstances that led to her husband’s heart failure. “He didn’t deserve to die like that.”

Problems started last year when the couple learned the monthly premium payment for their Federal Employees Health Benefits plan would more than double to $307 and their deductible would also go up. They decided to switch Blackman’s primary coverage to CHAMPVA, a health benefits program for dependents of disabled veterans, which had no premium and a $3,000 deductible.

Smith thought she and Blackman had carefully prepared so that the transition between health plans would be seamless. It was anything but.

After the new health plan became active in January, Smith said, Blackman faced one hurdle after another getting approval for the antirejection medications needed to prevent his body from attacking his transplanted heart. Patients who rely on these drugs can develop severe and life-threatening heart issues if they miss even a few days. She said Blackman had enough medication to last only about a month into the new plan year. He told her just before his death that he had run out.

“I screamed at CHAMPVA. I screamed at the Trump administration. I screamed at the overall healthcare system in this godforsaken country,” she said. “Everybody played a part in what happened to my husband.”

The Department of Veterans Affairs declined to comment on the record about Blackman’s case.

While the couple’s situation was extreme, their challenge of trying to continue a treatment is faced by many who shop for cheaper options as health insurance costs have soared across the country. The United States already has a fragmented health system, in which insurers, clinicians, and drugmakers are largely left on their own to hash out the cost of each medication or service. That lack of standardization leads to layers of bureaucracy for patients; moving to a new plan can ensnare patients in a thicket of red tape, keeping them from care.

Making matters more challenging, Congress didn’t renew covid pandemic-era subsidies that helped lower premiums for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans before this year. The Trump administration is also adding hurdles for people to access Medicaid, a state-federal health insurance program for Americans with low incomes or disabilities, so more people may lose their current coverage.

“We’ve basically set up a series of cracks in our healthcare system that we ask people to jump over,” said , an assistant professor of health policy at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “But if you don’t jump over those cracks, you can lose coverage, or lose access to your doctor, or lose access to your medications.”

‘This Is a Lot’

Insurers calibrate plan prices by negotiating rates with individual clinicians, hospital systems, and drugmakers, leading to varying levels of coverage. Plans with lower monthly costs of doctors and hospitals, and less generous drug coverage.

As a result, when patients choose an insurer — or even a new plan with the same insurer — they may lose access to medications or doctors that they have had for years, said , a research professor in health policy at Georgetown University. There are so many ways “patients could get tripped up,” she said. “When you switch to a new insurance company, they’re going to apply their rules.”

In announced by the Trump administration last year, many insurers voluntarily agreed to reduce some red tape by honoring existing prior authorizations for 90 days when a patient switches health plans. As required by law, they also offer resources such as plain-language plan descriptions and searchable online clinician directories to help patients coordinate care, according to , the main health insurance industry trade group.

“The goal is to ensure every member understands their benefits and can access the care they need without interruption,” said Conner Coles, an AHIP spokesperson.

But patients say understanding their benefits can still be a challenge.

Monique Acosta, 54, had to navigate two health insurance changes after she was laid off from her job at a disability nonprofit in October. The heart transplant recipient and cancer survivor said she paid nearly $900 a month to continue her employer coverage under COBRA, the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Then, in January, the Woodbridge, Virginia, resident switched to Medicaid.

During the transitions, Acosta said, she lost coverage for a postchemotherapy drug. So, she changed her care team to qualify for lower-cost medications through a local hospital’s charity program. Then one of her new doctors reduced the frequency of an injection she had gotten for years. During that time, she said, her red and white blood cell counts plummeted and she struggled to recover from a heart catheterization procedure.

Eventually, her new physician upped the frequency of her injections back to twice a month. “He needed to document it so he could see it himself,” Acosta said. “I was very, very fatigued, very weak, and it’s unnecessarily so.”

Acosta said she is putting off a mammogram until she can better understand her Medicaid plan or find a job with better benefits. “This is overwhelming,” she said. “This is a lot.”

Burden on the Patient

Federal regulations, 43 states, and Washington, D.C., have that require health plans to continue covering doctors and drugs when there is a network change, like when a clinician or hospital that a patient goes to is terminated from the insurer’s network of providers.

But Corlette said that not all the protections address the trip wires people face when they switch insurers on their own, such as during open enrollment or after a major life change.

Still, people can be proactive in a few ways about maintaining care when they change plans, said Shelli Quenga, an insurance agent in South Carolina.

She advises patients to keep written records of their medical and drug history for new providers. Quenga tells her customers to get their new insurance information to their doctors as soon as they switch, not to wait until an appointment. In addition, she said patients can request a case manager with their insurer so they don’t have to repeat their concerns to different staffers.

Even when a patient does homework, doctors can drop out of a network and insurers can change the contours of their plans, McIntyre said.

“Nobody has an incentive to make it make sense,” she said. “This puts a lot of burden on the patient.”

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When Congress allowed covid-era subsidies for health insurance to expire, California used its own funds to offset the hike in Obamacare premium costs for residents with low incomes.

But the reach has been limited.

As Gov. Gavin Newsom negotiates his last budget with the legislature, the Democrat wants to offer financial help to more than 1 in 4 enrollees in Covered California, the nation’s largest state-run health insurance marketplace. Democratic lawmakers, who hold a supermajority, are still debating the plan.

“My budget proposal would KEEP $0 monthly plans for low-income Californians to help clean up the financial disaster Trump created,” Newsom , where he often chides the president and GOP Congress.

have put up their own funds to keep Affordable Care Act plans affordable and residents insured as the rising cost of healthcare has emerged as a among voters. Newsom’s $300 million proposal would make California’s program among the most generous, but even the nation’s richest state can’t patch a left by the expiration of enhanced subsides at the end of last year.

“The gap between what people can pay in their monthly budget and what health insurance costs is so big that it’s a lot for states to take on,” said , a senior research fellow at the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University. “They’re going to have to figure out how they can finance that.”

New Mexico lawmakers have of the lost federal subsidies with state money. It seems to have worked; New Mexico saw in marketplace enrollment this year, but state analysts that the subsidy program isn’t sustainable.

and , which, like California, tax residents , are also spending hundreds of millions of dollars to try to keep premium payments low. Their hope, healthcare experts say, is to avoid the exodus seen in states such as Georgia that didn’t offer enrollees help.

Since the enhanced subsidies expired, have seen their premium payments increase by $65 a month on average.

Conservatives including have long argued that the subsidy expansion was too generous to high-income enrollees and .

“There are never enough subsidies to make health insurance affordable because subsidies are the problem,” said Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. “They are causing people to turn a blind eye to fraud and waste and excessive prices because it’s someone else’s money that they’re spending, not their own.”

Helping the Poorest?

People who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid got relief starting in January after Newsom and legislators softened the blow for about 300,000 of the lowest-income enrollees. They offset lost federal premium tax credits for individuals who last year and partially filled the gap for those who earned up to $25,823.

The governor now wants to expand subsidies to those who earn up to $31,920 this year for an individual and $66,000 for a family of four — an estimated 218,000 additional people.

Veronica and William Walter, who live in the San Francisco Bay Area, earn less than $40,000 a year in one of the nation’s most expensive regions. They’re counting on a more generous state healthcare tax credit if they have to pay for health insurance next year.

A car accident two years ago left William temporarily disabled, qualifying the couple for Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program.

Now he’s back at work as a security guard, and Veronica said she’s worried they’ll be kicked off Medi-Cal. She’s even more worried about how they’ll get by with federal premium tax credits not nearly as generous as before.

“Without it, we’re going to be facing worse problems than we have now,” she said. Under Newsom’s proposal, Veronica and others in the highest eligible income bracket could receive an average monthly subsidy of $36 a person.

“For them, $36 a month is the sort of thing that can make a difference between keeping coverage and losing coverage,” said Peter Lee, former executive director of Covered California. “We can’t fix everything with that gap, but we can focus the dollars on those who need it most.”

The Walter family, though, may still face a nearly $200 monthly premium payment to cover both of them, $130 more than they previously paid for healthcare and prescriptions through Covered California.

“I can’t afford that, not really,” said Veronica, a pet sitter who works part-time at a school. “A giant state like this with this many people, and this many resources? You can’t just leave the people with nothing for healthcare or healthcare they can’t afford.”

California policy researchers and health advocates acknowledge the limits of a partial subsidy but say that concentrating funds on those who earn less is the most efficient way to maximize impact. People who drop coverage are , healthier, and less likely to have high healthcare costs — all factors that help stabilize the insurance risk pool. Without coverage, Lee said, they’re also more likely to experience debt from medical emergencies or leave unpaid hospital bills that strain the .

Cary Sanders, senior policy director at the California Pan-Ethnic Health Network, a health advocacy group, said the state’s move last year kept low-income enrollment in Covered California steady and reduced racial disparities in coverage.

“It’s working; it’s just that it’s not enough,” Sanders said. “We need the federal subsidies back.”

Still No Help for Many

When Congress passed enhanced subsidies in 2021, it capped monthly premium payments for even the highest earners at 8.5% of income. Those temporary enhancements allowed about 8 million Americans to choose robust plans with no monthly premium payment last year and helped double Obamacare enrollment to of 24 million.

At the end of last year, 22 million of them lost that help when the GOP-led Congress blocked the extension.

The pressures on Obamacare enrollees don’t stop at premiums. Federal legislation Republicans passed last summer known as the also shortens enrollment windows, tightens income verification requirements for subsidies, and requires enrollees who earn more than they projected to pay back the full amount.

Even if Newsom’s proposal passes, most Covered California customers won’t get state help. Nearly 1 million enrollees — 52% — earn above the $31,300-a-year individual earning cutoff.

Victoria Garzouzi was one of many middle-income retirees hit with one of the most extreme premium increases: The monthly payment for her low-level bronze plan jumped eightfold to $1,600.

To make ends meet, she came out of retirement and dipped into her savings. “I’m working to pay for my insurance,” she said. “I am an army of one.”

Despite a $6,000 deductible, her health insurance premium payment is more than the mortgage on her two-bedroom house. She’s putting off a needed cataract surgery until October, when she turns 65 and qualifies for Medicare.

While GOP leaders have not publicly weighed in on the state subsidies, some Democratic lawmakers have questioned why more help hasn’t been proposed.

Assembly member Dawn Addis, who chairs the chamber’s budget subcommittee on health, suggested Newsom could tap an additional $230 million from a fund for healthcare cost relief — money raised from a state penalty levied on those who can afford to enroll in health insurance but choose not to.

Lawmakers have previously criticized state officials for socking away much of the penalty revenue, which was supposed to go toward healthcare affordability. After California discontinued its premium subsidies thanks to increased federal assistance, the Newsom administration said the state was saving to help consumers once those temporary subsidies expired. Instead, California borrowed from the subsidy fund to cover state budget shortfalls, to the tune of $771 million. Starting this year, the subsidy fund should see an influx of cash as the state pays back the loan.

At a May legislative hearing, Joseph Donaldson, then a Department of Finance analyst, said maintaining the reserve was a prudent and financially sustainable approach.

Dylan Roby, a public health professor at the University of California-Irvine who consults for Covered California, said the focus on lower-income enrollees is deliberate. They qualify for federal subsidies that higher earners don’t, maximizing federal investment and strengthening the broader system.

“You end up with more advanced premium tax credits flowing into the state that you would have been leaving on the table,” he said.

State lawmakers have until June 15 to pass a state budget. Then, Covered California’s board would decide eligibility and benefit amounts, a decision that could come this summer, with new subsidies starting Jan. 1.

Even with the extra help, Walter and her husband worry they won’t be able to afford a potential $200 monthly premium payment. Walter said she’d likely have to rely on free clinics or ration medications.

“I take so many pills, I rattle,” she said. “That, on top of the $200? For us, it really adds up.”

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The 59-year-old retired teacher, who recently moved from Ohio to Michigan, now pays $341 a month for a pair of plans, one that covers routine and urgent care and another that pays fixed amounts for hospital stays. Neither meets federal standards for comprehensive coverage.

Though she practices yoga and is healthy, Miller said she still feels “vulnerable.” If she lands in the hospital, her plan pays a flat $2,000, a fraction of the of an average hospital stay.

“I don’t gamble. But I may as well,” she said. “This is gambling.”

Congress’ decision late last year not to extend enhanced marketplace tax credits has boosted the appeal of alternatives to comprehensive insurance — plans like Miller’s, which have lower premiums but don’t meet ACA standards for coverage or consumer protections. Unlike plans sold on the exchanges, these options — some sold by major insurers, others by small companies or nonprofits — can deny claims with few or no legal rights for consumers to appeal. The plans are not required to cover “essential health benefits,” such as preventive care, and can impose annual or lifetime caps on benefits.

There is debate over whether these options help or harm patients. Consumer advocates dismiss them as “junk insurance,” while proponents say restricting alternatives to pricey marketplace plans risks driving up the number of uninsured. Some states, including Kansas and Florida, and the federal government itself have eased regulations on such plans or created incentives to join them, while other states, including California and Massachusetts, have tried to deter enrollment in alternative insurance. Those regulatory guardrails, however, are now being stress-tested as premiums blow out household budgets.

Alternative insurance takes many forms, including short-term policies, which were designed to bridge temporary gaps in coverage and often exclude preexisting conditions, and fixed-indemnity plans, which pay a flat rate per service regardless of how high costs go and are intended for supplemental use. Arrangements in which people pool their money to cover one another’s bills, including faith-based “healthcare sharing ministries,” also provide a cheaper alternative to the marketplace options. Because they are not considered insurance under federal or state law, they are not legally bound to pay for even .

Enrollment data for alternative plans is mostly confidential, but several indicators point to shifts in the market. Recent estimates suggest marketplace enrollment from 2025, and a of people on the exchanges last year found that 5% switched to private, nonmarketplace individual coverage, including plans that don’t comply with the ACA. Covered California, the state’s marketplace, plans to survey former enrollees to find out where they went.

Insurance industry insiders also report that, amid the expiration of subsidies, alternative plans are making a marketing push. Colorado insurance broker Samantha Albritton said that before ACA open enrollment, she saw more marketing from fixed-indemnity plans than in previous years. One healthcare sharing plan, Zion HealthShare, had more than 75,000 members in February — a 50% increase since last June, it said in a statement.

Critics of these alternative plans say the major issues occur when people use them as primary insurance and don’t realize the coverage is inadequate until they need it most. “Humans have bodies that can fail them,” said Amy Killelea, an assistant research professor at Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms.

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Sign-ups were already down in January by about from last year’s . For this year, enrollees then faced premiums that increased, on average, . On top of that, subsidies that help people purchase coverage shrank or vanished.

Now experts are watching how many of the approximately 23 million people who enrolled will fail to pay their share of premiums.

While available data on premium payments is mainly from January, a few states that run their own ACA markets have released information for later months. The sharpest drop in people paying premiums, based on limited data, is , which saw a 28% drop in April compared with the same period a year ago, according to an analysis by Charles Gaba, a healthcare policy analyst and blogger who specializes in the ACA.

The news website NOTUS that it had internal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data showing that roughly 21% of people using the federal ACA marketplace — — failed to pay their share of January premiums, which, if correct, is far higher than at the same time last year.

CMS did not answer questions from Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News about the enrollment data.

In looking at the early numbers analysts released, “we can’t yet quantify how much worse it will be than in previous years, but it will absolutely be worse because of the sticker shock,” said Ellen Montz, a managing director with the Manatt Health consultancy, who helped oversee the ACA during her tenure with the Biden administration.

The initial results come amid rising public concern about affordability, that are often .

A KFF analysis , for instance, found that the average ACA plan deductible saw the steepest increase in history — growing by 37%, or over $1,000, from $2,759 in 2025 to $3,786 in 2026 as enhanced premium tax credits expired.

Those rising costs pose a political challenge for President Donald Trump and the broader GOP, which has opposed enhanced subsidies to help people purchase Obamacare coverage. Republican lawmakers also passed a spending package last year — enacted as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — that included provisions expected to reduce ACA enrollment and fueling higher premiums this year.

The enrollment reductions “are real people with real consequences,” Montz said. “The Affordable Care Act is a political lightning rod, but it’s a critical component of the coverage landscape.”

Following the Numbers

Right now, the drop-off rate aligns with what some policy experts predicted, partly because Congress did not extend generous benefits that expired at the end of last year. Those enhanced subsidies had been in place since 2021.

“Overall, the individual market does appear to be trending toward a significant contraction in 2026, and may well resemble” drops projected by the , said a , an analysis arm of the HMA Co.

Based on its analysis, drawn from data provided by 75 insurers, Wakely estimates that average ACA enrollment will end up being 17% to 26% lower this year than last.

So far, the Wakely report says, an average 86% of enrollees made their first payment in January.

Failure to pay premiums varied by state. Those with the lowest drop-off rates had enacted additional help — such as backfilling part or all of the reduced subsidy amounts with state money — or experienced lower premium increases. States that run their own exchanges had higher payment rates (92%) than those served by the federal marketplace (82% to 84%).

Gaba’s initial analysis of data includes more recent numbers from nine of the 20 states that run their own Obamacare marketplaces.

“Georgia could be fairly representative” of other states that did not enact additional protections, Gaba said. For example, payment failure rates, year over year, were 11.6% as of April in New Jersey, and, as of February, 15.7% in Washington state and 8.5% in California.

Only one state in his sample — New Mexico — saw an increase in the percentage of people making premium payments, according to the latest available monthly data. Unlike most, it to fully make up for the lower federal subsidy amounts.

Enrollment figures for the ACA are never static. Traditionally, more people sign up — either through auto reenrollment or by taking initiative to shop — than actually pay premiums, so the numbers tend to be higher at the start of the year.

People drop out over the course of a year for many reasons, such as finding other coverage through a job or by marrying someone with insurance.

Cost, of course, is a factor. This year, because premiums went up and subsidies went down, many people faced what they previously paid toward their coverage.

And the Trump administration ended a special enrollment program that let low-income people enroll year-round.

drops should not be seen solely in the context of rising costs. Paragon Health Institute, a free-market think tank that has become influential among conservatives on Capitol Hill, has long argued that record enrollment numbers in recent years were fueled by fraudulent sign-ups, perhaps in the millions.

, , and policy experts took issue with the methodology Paragon used to estimate improper enrollments, saying they likely were vastly overestimated.

In a , the organization’s president, Brian Blase, doubled down on the fraud findings. Using data that detailed how many people failed to make premium payments each year, on average, from 2014 to 2019 — the year before covid emerged and two years before enhanced subsidies kicked in — he offered this prediction for 2026: About 19 million people would be enrolled by year’s end. Even at that, the note says, the “market would be 90% higher than the pre-COVID average.”

For other experts, however, the biggest explanation for falling enrollment is cost.

Some people had never experienced the ACA before the enhanced tax credits kicked in, so they faced extra sticker shock.

“In economic theory, no matter whether one is left, right, or center, it’s a simple fact that when you raise prices of something, fewer people will buy it,” said Sabrina Corlette, co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University.

The Long View

The expectation of a lower enrollment trend holding up is one of the key factors likely to translate into higher cost estimates as insurers draw up 2027 rates.

For one thing, though it is still unclear how many people will stay enrolled, it is also unknown whether those enrollees will submit more medical claims than insurers projected. It’s generally thought that younger or healthier people are more likely to drop coverage when faced with growing premiums.

Secondly, there has been a sharp shift by consumers to purchase bronze-level plans, which have smaller monthly premiums but higher deductibles — the amount people must pay out-of-pocket for most treatment, except preventive care, before insurers pitch in. The found that sign-ups for bronze plans jumped from 30% to 40% of total plan selections — growing from 7.3 million in 2025 to 9.2 million people this year. Will they pay? Or will hospitals and doctors be on the hook for uncollected copays or deductibles, and then raise prices to compensate?

Insurers base their premiums, in part, on such analyses.

Another troubling factor for actuaries is the late posting of a key regulation that sets the next year’s rules for ACA health plans. The initial 2027 proposal from the Trump administration came out in mid-February and included aggressive new ideas — such as sharply increasing deductibles for certain types of ACA plans or allowing insurers to offer plans with no set networks of medical providers. It was , well into the time when insurers are calculating premiums for the following year. Many of the proposed changes, with some modifications, were approved, such as allowing for higher annual deductibles in some types of coverage.

“This is definitely a challenging year to be an actuary,” said Louise Norris, a health policy analyst for healthinsurance.org, a consumer information and referral website affiliated with Trove Group, an insurance agency.

“We know for sure that the individual market has gotten smaller and almost certainly sicker, as the people dropping coverage are more likely to be healthy.”

While they “aren’t waving huge red flags” yet, insurers are closely watching trends, said Michelle Anderson, a director at Wakely and co-author of the recent report.

Anderson does not expect an average 26% premium increase like the one seen this year.

Still, Anderson expects the ongoing uncertainty and predicted decline in enrollment, which will vary by state and insurer, to play a role in setting next year’s premium rates.

“It would not surprise me if there were some double-digit increases,” Anderson said.

Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News reporter Rachel Spears contributed to this article.

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