When the Durhams began their practice at the end of 2023 — he as a primary care physician and she as a pharmacist who handles the billing — the couple bought coverage for themselves and their two kids on the Affordable Care Act marketplace. But they said their monthly premiums for a similar health plan for this year rose several hundred dollars to nearly $1,600.

They decided to pay out-of-pocket for their medical expenses instead, leaning on $50,000 they had set aside in a health savings account over several years.

“It’s nerve-racking,” said Joshua Durham, 47. “It just takes, you know, one little accident, and then you got a big fat bill.”

The healthcare industry traditionally has more of its workforce on medical insurance than many other fields. Nationwide, 7% of all healthcare workers were uninsured in 2024, compared with 11% of all adults under 65, according to a KFF analysis of the most recent American Community Survey data. And doctors were especially unlikely to forgo health insurance, with just 2% uninsured.

But even healthcare workers are feeling the pinch as each year, with employers expecting that costs will jump an for 2027.

The Republican-led Congress also opted last year Affordable Care Act marketplace credits enacted during the covid pandemic. While subsidies remain in place for people with low incomes, the pandemic-era credits helped , especially those working in small businesses such as independent medical practices. Nearly half of marketplace enrollees worked for small businesses or were self-employed in 2024; some of the most common occupations included chiropractic care and dentistry.

Jack Dillon, executive director of the , which represents 4,000 physician-led practices, said premium increases have become untenable for small businesses, whether employers seek coverage through the marketplace or directly from insurers.

“The cost has become so astronomical,” Dillon said. “You’re looking at it and saying, ‘What’s the value?’”

As health insurance continues to become less affordable, Dillon said, more healthcare employers may seek alternatives to their standard coverage, such as providing higher hourly wages or providing only minimal plans.

The number of people without insurance in the U.S. is expected to increase by roughly over 10 years because of the expiration of the expanded ACA subsidies and resulting from President Donald Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Healthier people are the most likely to opt out of insurance. That leaves insurance covering a smaller pool of people who tend to be sicker and need more expensive care. So insurers raise prices to cover the remaining enrollees, which fuels even higher premium costs.

‘Healthcare Is a Business’

Samantha LeGault, a nurse practitioner at a health clinic in Boise, said her employer-offered plan’s premium payment rose from $700 to $1,500 a month this year to insure herself, her husband, and four of their kids. LeGault has Crohn’s disease and two of their daughters also have medical conditions, so she said her family has no choice but to continue to pay for that health coverage.

But she decided to skip dental insurance to save money, and she prioritizes dental visits for her children over herself.

She had already struggled to set aside retirement savings and had switched her children from a private school they liked to public school to cut down on costs. Then the new health insurance costs tightened her budget even more. She estimated that about one-fifth of her income now goes toward her monthly premium payments.

“I know how the clinics work, that I am an expensive patient,” LeGault said. “At the end of the day, healthcare is a business in the United States.”

The Durhams have three other employees in their practice. Two of them receive health insurance through their spouses, Ashley Durham said. The Durhams said they pay $420 monthly toward their physician assistant’s premiums.

As a primary care physician, Joshua Durham said he doesn’t need regular doctor visits, because he can diagnose and treat himself — and, if needed, the rest of his family, though he acknowledged that’s frowned upon. The American Medical Association’s generally discourages doctors from treating themselves or relatives but makes exceptions for emergency situations or short-term, minor problems. Ashley Durham said she’s filled prescriptions for her family.

, a bioethicist and professor emeritus at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, said that as more people are “turning toward relatives because they can’t access or easily see a regular doctor,” it may make sense to revisit that aspect of the code of ethics.

Out-of-Pocket Expenses

Healthcare workers with less advanced medical certifications than the Durhams often don’t have the option of treating themselves or family members — or don’t have savings to fall back on for healthcare expenses. And many healthcare professionals, such as Jill Kordick, a 64-year-old retired healthcare executive in Norwalk, Iowa, aren’t willing to go without the safety net of insurance.

In her work, Kordick saw hospitalizations become financially devastating for patients, so she said she would never opt out of health insurance — even for just the 16 months before she’d become eligible for Medicare at age 65.

Last year, she qualified for the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, allowing her to pay $75 a month for health coverage. Her premiums rose to $800 a month this year when those subsidies expired.

Because she has a $10,000 deductible, she put off going to the doctor for weeks when she had a sinus infection this year, until it ultimately evolved into an ear infection. She said she regularly rethinks, and sometimes returns, nonessential groceries in her shopping cart. And she keeps her house’s thermostat at 80 degrees in the summer to cut down on air conditioning costs.

Kordick said healthcare is a universal struggle in this country, regardless of how familiar patients are with the industry. “It’s disheartening that it’s as broken and fragmented as it is,” she said.

The Durhams have seen the impact of unaffordable healthcare on their patients. They said they try to lend some leeway to patients when they can — a luxury they have, operating their own practice. In one case, Ashley Durham said, she wrote off $1,160 in bills for a single father whose son didn’t have health insurance rather than send their bills to a collection agency.

“It’s hard, because as a human I want to help them out,” she said. “At the same time, we need revenue for our office.”

Joshua Durham is more nervous about going uninsured than his wife. As a child, he witnessed his parents struggling to pay medical bills for their family of nine in south-central Idaho. Durham recalled that his dad, who was a carpenter, helped build a surgeon’s house to pay for an operation.

Today, Durham also sometimes exchanges work for care. He said he gets free eye exams from an uninsured optometrist and offers him free primary care.

He worries about a worst-case scenario: a car crash, a sports injury, a serious diagnosis.

“Do I have pancreatic cancer today?” Durham said wryly.

So far, the couple has paid around $9,000 total for expenses out of their health savings account this year, including physical therapy to help with the thoracic outlet syndrome that affects Durham’s neck and shoulder, mental health appointments, and contact lenses. The expenses were higher than the Durhams anticipated. But it was still less than what their monthly premiums would have cost them.

Their decision has paid off, Joshua Durham said. At least for now.

Are you struggling to afford your health insurance? Have you decided to forgo coverage? Click here to contact Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and share your story.

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Court papers indicate a settlement in the case against the Department of Labor , although the parameters of any such deal are unknown.

It would come amid premium surges on Affordable Care Act marketplaces that have led millions to drop coverage this year. The Trump administration has also been sharply focused on expanding access to alternative coverage, such that avoid ACA rules on preexisting conditions and benefit requirements.

“Depending on what happens with the settlement, this could be an even bigger expansion,” said , director of the Center for Health Policy and the Law at the Georgetown University Law Center. “People are worried that it is the opening salvo into promoting junk plans that don’t meet the ACA requirements.”

The plaintiff, Data Marketing Partnership, against the Department of Labor in 2019, during the first Trump administration. It wants official recognition as an employer so it can continue to allow its limited partners to buy into a type of job-based health insurance that doesn’t have to comply with state insurance rules or offer coverage as robust as required under the ACA.

But to grasp the claim, one also has to understand how the coverage works.

A consumer shopping for health insurance may come across information online or from a marketer about this concept, sometimes called “limited partnership” coverage. The pitch? Buy insurance offered through Data Marketing Partnership and handled by LP Management Services. To qualify, the consumer must download an app that tracks their internet searches. The company could then sell that data.

Some potential consumers may be turned off by the thought of their internet searches being tracked, but others may find it appealing because it allows them to become a limited partner eligible to buy into the company’s employee health insurance plans. But can these partners be considered employees?

The court’s answer has potential implications for regulators and consumers. Some health policy and market experts warn that a green light could lead to a proliferation of aggressively marketed and potentially questionable insurance with limited recourse for consumers because the plans would be exempt from state oversight.

“If this took off, you logically could see the rise of a whole bunch of what, functionally, would be unregulated insurance companies,” said , who was the principal deputy assistant secretary of the Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration during Joe Biden’s presidency and now runs his own consulting outfit.

No one knows if the department is going to change its long-running stance defending the case. But any settlement could add more uncertainty to insurance markets.

Already insurers are requesting double-digit increases in ACA premiums again next year, partly because declining enrollment often means that the healthiest policyholders are leaving. That trend could accelerate in coming years as more people are drawn into alternatives such as limited-partnership policies.

States Act as Federal Case Plays Out

The Department of Labor defended the case throughout the first Trump administration and the Biden era, issuing a sharply worded in early 2020 stating that people who simply download software to “capture data as they browse the Internet” are not “employees or bona fide partners.”

A district court judge in Texas, the ACA unconstitutional in a decision ultimately rejected by the Supreme Court, called the advisory opinion “” in a 2020 ruling in favor of the data marketer. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the largely upheld the lower court’s decision but ordered it whether someone who downloads software is either a “working owner” or a “bona fide partner.”

The employer-employee relationship is at the heart of the case because of a designed to help large, self-insured employers offer retirement and health benefits to workers without having to meet varying rules from multiple states.

That law — the Employee Retirement Income Security Act — allows such plans to avoid most rules set by the states, which generally regulate most other types of insurance and assist consumers who report problems with their policies. As self-insured employer plans, the policies also don’t have to comply with some ACA rules, such as the 10 broad categories of “essential health benefits.”

“If the case goes the wrong way, it could impact consumers or hamstring the states,” said Marie Grant, Maryland’s insurance commissioner.

Arguments over what constitutes an employer plan are not new, and other organizations have tried offering such coverage. Some states have taken action against purveyors of limited-partner policies.

Maryland in 2024 , The Vitamin Patch, for offering limited-partnership insurance after investigating complaints and determining it was not licensed to sell coverage in the state.

Washington in 2021 to stop offering its plans in the state and fined it $25,000.

and in 2024 warned consumers about this type of coverage.

“These plans do not provide comprehensive medical coverage and can leave consumers with large, unpaid medical bills,” according to Connecticut’s notice.

Maine’s announcement noted that entities offering these types of health insurance included The Vitamin Patch as well as Affiliated Workers Alliance, Consumer Data Partners, Employers Business Alliance, Socios Buenos, and Strategic Limited Partners.

State insurance commissioners in the Department of Labor case citing their concerns about losing the ability to enforce consumer protections.

“This is not a Republican-Democrat thing,” Khawar said. “It’s really a story about state authority, the way such authority would be significantly undermined in insurance markets.”

What’s the Risk?

Still, these limited-partnership plans are viewed by proponents as a needed additional choice for consumers, at potentially lower cost than ACA plans.

When the case was filed, attorneys general , for example, urged the Department of Labor to back Data Marketing’s request to designate its limited partners as employees. That would provide an option for people who “earn too much to qualify” for ACA subsidies and be an interim solution until the ACA could be repealed and replaced, they wrote. They argued that states would retain some regulatory authority and added that the Department of Labor, which oversees self-insured employer plans, could set requirements to “encourage” stable companies to enter the market.

Critics, the attorneys general wrote, might fear that ACA alternatives will draw away younger or healthier people, thus affecting those who remain, but they argued that had already happened.

Data Marketing’s attorneys emailed Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News that they could not provide a comment for this article because the case is in active litigation. Neither the White House nor the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which oversees the ACA marketplaces, responded to questions from Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News about whether the Department of Labor has changed its stance and how the administration views limited-partnership health plans.

In court filings, however, Data Marketing said that without an employer designation, it would have to end the insurance coverage, affecting about 50,000 policyholders. That would also hurt its ability to generate revenue, it argued, because offering insurance is “a significant attractor” to get people to join its partnership and let it access their electronic data.

, who helped oversee ACA implementation in the Biden administration and is now a managing director at consultancy Manatt Health, had a different take. “The only reason why these sorts of products exist is because they aren’t beholden to consumer protection rules of the ACA and can essentially make money by attracting good risk, people who are healthy,” she said.

Maryland’s Grant echoed this warning, saying that proliferation of such plans could lead to even higher premiums in the ACA markets, if those who remain are older or sicker than those who leave.

Nineteen patient advocacy groups to the Department of Labor Aug. 11 urging it to continue its defense in the case, warning that a settlement that says such arrangements create an employer-employee relationship could “significantly” undermine “both state regulatory authority and decades of bipartisan efforts to promote stable, well-functioning health insurance markets.” Some of those groups in support of the department in 2021.

Days after the August letter, U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), the ranking member of the House education and workforce committee, warned the department against increasing the availability of “questionable employment relationships” and the insurance they offer.

He cited reports of call centers’ misleading consumers “who think they are enrolling in comprehensive health insurance but instead sign up for junk coverage under the guise of creating an employment relationship with what the consumer believed to be a traditional health insurer.”

This article first appeared on Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and is republished here under a .

“Maybe this is my sign to try the full-time music thing,” Morgan recalled thinking. “Step one in that was: Get health insurance again.”

Austin bills itself as “the Live Music Capital of the World,” but it for the artists who provide the city with its cultural cachet — and help drive its tourism revenue.

Morgan has supported himself by patching together gigs with a number of bands. To help pay for health insurance, he turned to a local nonprofit, the , or HAAM.

“That’s part of being able to make this whole thing work,” Morgan said.

HAAM subsidizes the monthly insurance premiums of local musicians who purchase plans through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. To fund the roughly $4 million program, it works with Central Health, a public agency that provides healthcare resources for low-income residents of Austin and surrounding Travis County. Many of the performing artists pay $0 toward monthly premiums.

After more than a decade, including through the coronavirus pandemic, the assistance program has become an established and reliable financial support for Austin’s musician community.

This year, after Congress failed to extend pandemic-era subsidies, premiums skyrocketed for many ACA plans. A recent report found that 5 million people nationwide had . HAAM helped blunt the impact for its members. It has emerged as a potential model for other cities hoping to make healthcare more affordable for key populations and industries.

A Growing Idea

Texas had the among states, with 19% of people age 64 and under uninsured, as of 2024.

Even before the launch of the ACA marketplace in 2014, HAAM had spent a decade connecting musicians with free and low-cost care at clinics and hospitals in and around Austin. But roughly 85% of HAAM members remained uninsured, leaving them exposed when traveling to gigs in other cities and states.

“When the Affordable Care Act came out, and we knew it was here to stay, it really made sense for us to start getting our musicians fully insured,” said , HAAM’s chief strategy officer.

Similar nonprofits in other U.S. cities with strong live music cultures, such as , , and , help musicians get medical care. With the advent of the ACA, some of these organizations began helping musicians navigate the sometimes complex enrollment process for the online marketplaces, though they stopped short of pitching in on premiums.

But the team at HAAM recognized that without direct support to help pay premiums, many of their members would still struggle to retain coverage.

“When you think about the average HAAM member making about $30,000 a year, there’s no way that they would be able to spend a third of their income on healthcare,” Blair said.

The organization’s membership has grown by 77% to more than 3,300 people since HAAM began offering premium assistance, and more than 90% of members are now insured.

To help subsidize costs for members, HAAM partnered with Central Health, which is Travis County’s public hospital district — a type of health agency in Texas charged with using tax dollars to fund safety net healthcare for low-income residents. Central Health also operates the nonprofit , which offers marketplace insurance to Travis County residents.

To qualify, HAAM members must enroll in one of Sendero’s silver-level, or benchmark, plans. If their income is between one and two times the federal poverty level, Central Health pays the balance of their monthly premium after federal tax credits are applied. For members who fall above that income range, HAAM offers a more limited subsidy, covering 50% of their premium balances.

In 2017, HAAM helped set up a similar program in Denton, a college town north of Dallas that has served as a , from Meat Loaf to Norah Jones.

The Denton Music and Arts Collaborative works differently: It connects members with an independent insurance agent who helps them find the best health plan for their needs. The nonprofit then offers members a monthly subsidy of $100.

The subsidies are a way of keeping Denton’s culture of jazz and “weird art rock” alive, said the collaborative’s president, Jennifer Kapinos.

“More and more people were maybe graduating college and leaving and going to find better opportunities in other places,” Kapinos said. “People who had lived here a long time suddenly were finding it harder and harder to afford to be here.”

In Austin, other sectors have been watching HAAM’s work. In 2025, , a nonprofit that advocates for restaurant workers, launched a small pilot program with Central Health to help local food workers enroll in Sendero plans and cover their premiums.

Kit Abney Spelce, vice president of operations for Central Health, said partnering with an advocacy group focused on a particular workforce is key because simply announcing “free insurance for you” doesn’t mean people will sign up.

“We are very much dependent on our partner entity to go out and connect with the community, to have that relationship and that trust,” she said.

Navigating Federal Headwinds

Though premium payments often increase year over year, the 2026 plan year was particularly expensive, .

Citing medical and pharmacy costs, Sendero by an average of 16% for its enrollees. At the same time, Congress allowed the pandemic-era enhanced premium tax credits to expire, reducing the federal subsidies that many marketplace customers relied on.

“Our premiums for our members went up 60% from one year to the next,” Blair said.

HAAM stepped up its fundraising into 2026, but it wasn’t enough to cover everyone who requested assistance. They had to turn away hundreds of qualified people. Still, they were able to buffer existing members, said Spelce with Central Health.

“We’re going to make sure their monthly premium is paid every month,” she said.

A Viable, if Limited, Model

Beyond the eligible musicians they turned away in 2026, another population remains out of HAAM’s coverage reach for premium assistance: Austin’s poorest residents.

Under the ACA, the marketplace plans that HAAM helps subsidize are for low- and middle-income earners, but the people with the very lowest incomes — below 100% of the federal poverty level, set at — are supposed to be covered by expanded Medicaid.

But Texas is one of 10 states that chose not to expand Medicaid after the ACA became law, so many of the poorest Texans remain uncovered.

With no federal subsidies available for that group, HAAM and Central Health have tried to develop separate solutions for this subpopulation. Central Health has its , an alternative to health insurance that gives low-income, uninsured people access to a network of local care providers. HAAM has also with primary care providers to serve its uninsured members — but Blair acknowledges it’s not an equivalent benefit to what Medicaid expansion would offer.

“It’s not a very sustainable solution, especially when there’s a really good alternative,” Blair said.

This article is from a partnership that includes , , and Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

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It’s an achievement the former congressman and former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services as he campaigns for California governor against Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator.

But should Becerra cruise to victory in November, as , he will face what may be the steepest decline in health insurance coverage in a generation, one that will land especially hard in his home state.

By 2030, the number of uninsured Californians under 65 is expected to from 2.4 million to 4.6 million, as recently enacted state and federal cuts to Medicaid and ACA marketplaces begin to historic gains in health coverage, according to a May analysis by the University of California-Berkeley Labor Center. The anticipated rise in the uninsured population could have broad implications for hospital systems, insurers, and the economy.

In February, Miranda Dietz, the labor center’s healthcare program director, told legislators the changes could end up costing California , mostly in the healthcare industry.

Hospital executives have begun reporting , and experts warn health plans will raise premiums further as they’re left with enrollees who are, on average, sicker and more expensive to cover.

“It’s triage,” said , executive director of Covered California, the nation’s largest state-run health insurance marketplace. “That’s what the next governor is walking into.”

California achieved one of the most in the nation, largely credited to the state’s robust adoption of the ACA. If tapped to lead the wealthy, progressive state, Becerra would wrestle with how uninsured Californians get care and who pays as the Trump administration shrinks a federal safety net he once oversaw.

Becerra has some experience pushing back against Washington, D.C. As California attorney general, he many provisions of the Affordable Care Act, including access to birth control.

Becerra said he would issue an to keep those affected by federal cuts insured. But he has not detailed how the state would backfill in federal funding California stands to lose annually.

At a policy forum hosted by Politico last month, would not lose health coverage despite federal cutbacks, saying he would push the industry to eliminate waste from “attorneys, accountants, pencil pushers” that cost consumers billions.

“I’m going to ask them to help me extract some of that waste and put it into healthcare, which helps us cover the cost of keeping Californians insured,” he said.

His opponent, Hilton, is trying to appeal to , despite receiving the president’s endorsement, and has stumped on cutting off coverage for Californians without legal status, which is paid for with state funds. Hilton has vowed to use those savings to , calling it an immediate antidote to high costs.

“We all understand that the healthcare system is a mess and needs major reform,” Hilton said in an interview. “The quickest thing we can do on healthcare costs is actually to tax people less.”

Left Behind?

In 2010, Becerra was part of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team and helped whip up votes to pass the law. He also had a hand in crafting it, though his attempt to include a government-backed coverage option failed.

A decade later, when lawmakers considered him for the nation’s top healthcare job, Becerra said his primary mission would be to carry out President Joe Biden’s vision to expand access and cut costs under the Affordable Care Act.

Before the ACA, some — roughly 1 in 6 — were uninsured. Within a few years of the law’s , its expansion of Medicaid eligibility and financial aid to lower-income marketplace enrollees helped slash the U.S. uninsured rate by nearly half.

Millions more gained coverage during the covid-19 pandemic after Becerra implemented a and administered generous but temporary tax credits that put the cost of Obamacare plans .

As Biden’s health secretary, Becerra launched aggressive public awareness campaigns, , and distributed hundreds of millions in grants to pay consumer assistants, also , to help enrollees wade through paperwork.

“One of the common things we would hear from him as a leader was, ‘Who’s being left behind?’” said Benjamin Sommers, a Harvard health policy professor who was a under Becerra.

Under Biden and Becerra, the percentage of people with health insurance reached a historical high of 92%, or 310 million Americans having health coverage in 2024.

Republican Response

But conservatives said those policies by attracting fraudulent and wasteful coverage. In response, the second Trump administration has and toughened income reporting.

“It’s simple and easy to say, well, the numbers are up so the program must be working,” said , a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. “My argument would be that’s the wrong metric.”

Last summer, the GOP-led Congress passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which for those who need it most while . Altogether, the law is expected to cut Medicaid spending by over a decade.

Congress also allowed enhanced for Obamacare plans to expire last year, spiking premium payments for middle-income Americans and driving down enrollment by this year.

“We are now witnessing almost a wholesale reversal of pretty much all those policies” that helped cover millions more Americans, said Sabrina Corlette, co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University.

For Eric Maciel, the $800 monthly cost of a Covered California plan is too much. To avoid injury, the 28-year-old stays home more and rarely plays pickup soccer at the park — the other players, he added, can get pretty rough.

“That’s another car note,” Maciel said. “I’d be left with nothing.”

Health economists say Maciel is the type of customer insurers need to stabilize their risk pools: young, healthy, and less costly.

Hilton criticized state leaders for passing a revised provider tax he asserts will send premiums soaring and said he wants to inject more competition into California’s health insurance market — but he offered no specific ideas.

Playing Defense

Higher-than-expected state costs coupled with federal cuts have prompted California to retreat on healthcare coverage. Federal funds of the state’s budget and , the state’s Medicaid program.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has frozen enrollment for immigrants without legal status, enacted monthly premiums for some, and federal assistance for legal immigrants such as asylees and refugees.

Newsom and Democratic lawmakers agreed to until July 2027, leaving the next governor to weigh further rollbacks against increased taxes. Becerra, a California native born to Mexican immigrants, , on November’s ballot. Last month, he said he supported legislative efforts to penalize large corporations whose workers rely on Medi-Cal, arguing that taxpayers are subsidizing employers’ low wages and paltry benefits.

County governments, which are legally required to provide healthcare to uninsured residents too poor to afford care, are lobbying lawmakers for funding to treat what they describe as a fresh deluge of patients who need free care.

“It’s a pretty big cliff if all this stuff goes into effect,” said Dietz, the labor center’s healthcare program director. “And there’s a choice whether to make it less bad and maintain coverage for folks.”

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Céline Gounder, Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News’ editor-at-large for public health, discussed fatal measles cases on CBS News 24/7’s Mornings on Aug. 26. Gounder fact-checked Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz’s comments about vaccines and drug prices on CBS News 24/7’s The Daily Report on Aug. 24. She also discussed food recalls this summer on CBS News 24/7’s The Takeout With Major Garrett on Aug. 24.

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Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News chief Washington correspondent Julie Rovner discussed kindergarten vaccination rates on WNYC’s The Brian Lehrer Show on Aug. 25.

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Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News contributor Mark Kreidler discussed the use of artificial intelligence for Medicaid reenrollment on KVPR’s Central Valley Daily on Aug. 24.

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• Read Kreidler’s “AI Is Being Used To Boost Medicaid Enrollment, but Not Without Concerns.”

Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News senior correspondent Julie Appleby discussed the state of the Affordable Care Act on Vox’s Today, Explained podcast on Aug. 24.

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Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News Georgia correspondent Briah Lumpkins discussed the importance of healthcare policy in upcoming elections on WUGA’s The Georgia Health Report on Aug. 21.

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This article first appeared on Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News and is republished here under a .

Enrollment in Affordable Care Act plans fell by nearly 3 million this year to about 19.2 million, following steep premium increases by insurers and the Republican-led Congress’ unwillingness to extend more generous premium subsidies. On average, ACA customers in premium payments this year, a 58% increase from 2025, according to KFF, while their deductibles — the amount consumers must pay annually before insurers pick up their share — have climbed 37% to nearly $3,800 a year.

“These are real people who are now forced to make impossible choices,” said Annalyse Keller, a spokesperson for a large coalition of lobby organizations for the healthcare industry, including insurers and patient advocacy groups.

But a released in June, written mostly by President Donald Trump’s political appointees and allies, asserts that 5.6 million people were fraudulently enrolled in ACA plans in 2025, and that the Trump administration removed 2.9 million of them — the same number as the 2026 drop in enrollment.

There’s little dispute that the ACA suffers from some fraud, as do most government programs. The administration said it has taken actions to tighten the enrollment process to thwart brokers who fraudulently enroll people without their knowledge.

For example, the administration in August 2025 halted a Biden-era initiative that allowed low-income people to sign up for coverage year-round. Regulators 1.5 million people since 2025 for reasons such as not meeting a requirement to file their taxes over two years or being concurrently enrolled in another health program, such as Medicaid, which is not allowed.

But health policy experts say that the administration is overstating the extent of ACA fraud and that the HHS report relies on debatable assumptions, such as that all sign-ups under the year-round enrollment program for low-income people were potentially fraudulent. ACA enrollment fell off a cliff because of escalating prices for insurance plans, policy analysts say, which the administration’s done nothing to stem.

“The top-level claim” that all the decline in enrollment since 2025 is because of improper or fraudulent enrollees leaving the market “is not remotely credible,” said , a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “We know that lots of people have seen higher premiums, and there’s really good evidence that when premiums go up, people drop coverage.”

Healthcare costs are a big concern for voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, and both Democrats and Republicans are trying to spin the issue to their advantage. Democrats argue more needs to be done to make insurance less expensive for consumers, while Republicans are trying to focus on the need to save taxpayer dollars from fraud.

found that voters trust Democrats over Republicans to address healthcare costs (37% vs. 26%). The poll also found, though, that 55% of Republican voters consider it extremely important for candidates to address healthcare fraud, more than any other issue, showing that the White House’s effort to shift focus from costs has had some success with its own supporters.

But Jonathan Oberlander, a professor of health policy and management at the University of North Carolina, questioned whether the fraud narrative will hold up as voters continue to struggle with rising costs.

“It will be cold comfort to the very real persons who could no longer afford coverage and dropped their plans,” he said in an email to Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

How We Got Here

Under President Joe Biden, Congress that included more generous tax subsidies for people enrolled in Obamacare, starting in 2021. Those enhanced subsidies lowered premium payments, for a large enough tax credit to reduce their monthly payment to zero. The Biden-era law also allowed wealthier households to get assistance.

ACA coverage essentially doubled, from just over 11 million Americans in 2021 to more than 22 million in 2025, according to the HHS report.

Republicans and conservative groups argue that the growth wasn’t driven only by people newly enrolling because of lower premiums. Instead, they say, the enhanced subsidies, along with other Biden-era policies — including easing income verification requirements for some enrollees — invited fraud. Unscrupulous, commission-seeking insurance brokers found it easier to sign people up for coverage, often without their knowledge, while ordinary consumers could more easily fudge their income and qualify for the largest subsidy possible.

The conservative Paragon Health Institute’s president, Brian Blase, wrote that the HHS report’s conclusion on the scope of improper enrollment is likely an undercount. He remains unconvinced by the arguments that rising premiums are to blame for the sharp drop in ACA enrollment, saying subsidies remain generous for many people.

The Administration’s Current Targets

The debate will continue as more enrollment data emerges from the federal marketplace and the exchanges run by states. Some policy experts — including the consulting group Wakely — expect the year to end with the number of ACA policyholders down by .

Trump’s regulators will likely connect further drops with anti-fraud efforts. The HHS report alleges there are potentially millions more who remain improperly enrolled. The report’s authors noted that some of the administration’s anti-fraud proposals have been blocked by court rulings.

HHS released June 27, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pats Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, on the back for the number of canceled ACA plans so far. Oz threatens potential ACA hucksters: “Don’t walk away from us, run! Because we are going to find you.”

In an email responding to Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News’ questions, CMS spokesperson Christopher Krepich said his agency this summer will block ACA applications made by brokers that lack a Social Security number. By open enrollment this fall, CMS plans to require more identify-proofing when brokers enroll people and will limit a broker’s access to accounts until that person “has been authorized by the consumer to work on their behalf.”

How some suspicious enrollments will be removed is spelled out in emails sent in June to insurance carriers and obtained by Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News.

CMS told insurers that the agency will send them files for ACA accounts it believes are potentially unauthorized. Each flagged consumer account will have used a sales broker to enroll, be in a zero-premium plan, and lack a Social Security or an immigration documentation number — which Kennedy said in the video is a glaring sign of fraud.

Insurers must try to contact the enrollees to verify that they signed up for coverage. After 60 days, insurers must report policies they were unable to verify to CMS, which will cancel them.

Krepich wrote that carriers are cooperating with efforts to investigate accounts with missing or unverified information.

Policy experts, including Fiedler, note that the absence of a Social Security number doesn’t automatically prove fraud. While it could indicate a fake enrollee, a missing Social Security number might also be a simple oversight by the consumer or their broker, for example, or a newborn added to a parent’s account at birth, before they’ve received a number.

“That the administration put it in a report and did not summarily terminate these enrollments suggests they believe there is some mix of different circumstances,” Fiedler said.

The administration report singles out another segment of enrollments as suspicious: very low-income, subsidy-eligible people who shifted to plans that carry no monthly premium, suggesting “fraudulent agents and brokers are moving them to keep gaining commissions and avoid detection.” The report also cites ACA enrollees who file no medical claims as suspicious.

Policy experts question the assumptions behind those concerns.

Younger or lower-income people use healthcare less often, for example, which can explain why they may make no claims — particularly when they must first spend thousands of dollars out-of-pocket to meet high deductibles.

And very low-income people may switch to plans with higher deductibles in exchange for making no premium payment because they struggle to come up with the $50 or $80 monthly share that other plans might require.

“People are hurting for money,” said Florida insurance agent Jason Fine. “I literally have people who can’t afford to pay $15. I would not immediately assume that a person who went from a silver plan to a bronze plan, that it’s fraud,” referring to two types of ACA plans.

Fine said the administration needs to focus on better enforcement of existing rules, saying he has reported to regulators dozens of unscrupulous agents who have switched clients without authorization, yet none were barred from selling ACA policies.

He and other agents continue to push for adding multifactor identification, as banks and other financial institutions use, to the federal ACA marketplace. Some states that run their own exchanges have two-factor authentication or other types of ID verification and have not reported problems with unauthorized switching.

CMS — under both Biden and Trump — has not added two-factor authentication to the federal marketplace, healthcare.gov.

Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) to require it in June, but its prospects are murky.

“It will help reduce fraud,” said Ronnell Nolan, who leads Health Agents for America, a lobbying group that has long urged CMS to add the feature. Grothman’s legislation, she said, might “encourage CMS to do it themselves.”

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The officials, all Democrats, are running at a time when the Trump administration is reducing government funding for scientific research, restricting access to some vaccines, and making it more difficult for some Americans to obtain health insurance.

Shaughnessy Naughton, president of 3.14 Action, a political action committee that recruits Democratic candidates with science and health backgrounds, said it is unusual to see so many public health leaders running for office.

“But it’s not surprising given the moment we are living in, with an arsonist running HHS working to undermine the vaccine schedule and public health at large,” she said.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a longtime anti-vaccine activist who disparaged public health measures implemented during the pandemic, going as far as calling the covid vaccine the “.”

Neither HHS nor the White House responded to requests for comment.

Several of the candidates benefit from name recognition built during the covid pandemic, political science scholars say, when daily news briefings from local health officials became must-see-TV for many citizens sheltering in place from the novel virus. But that cuts two ways.

While many Americans regarded public health officials as offering prudent advice and a steady voice, others criticized them for pushing school closures, mask mandates, and new, quickly created vaccines. The attacks have escalated under President Donald Trump, with Republicans targeting pandemic-era public health leaders such as Anthony Fauci and a former Fauci adviser even facing .

National polls show healthcare is for many voters this year, with Democrats most worried about costs and Republicans about fraud. But that’s no guarantee of victory. Nirav Shah, an epidemiologist who led Maine’s top public health agency through the pandemic, lost a narrow Democratic primary in the state governor’s race in June.

Here are some of the public health officials on the ballot this year:

Xavier Becerra, Running for Governor in California

Becerra, who served as HHS secretary under President Joe Biden, is the highest-ranking former health official running this cycle. He won a crowded and expensive open primary and now faces Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host, in the general election.

Mark Peterson, a public policy professor at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, said with the pandemic in the rearview mirror, any judgment voters may have about the federal government’s response is more likely to reflect on Biden rather than Becerra, who has no medical background and maintained a low profile as HHS secretary.

Leading the nation’s health department as the pandemic lingered, Becerra focused more on expanding access to the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid, overseeing record numbers of people enrolled in the publicly financed programs during his tenure. He did face criticism over the processing and placement of a massive influx of migrant children at the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as his agency’s response to a baby formula shortage brought on, in part, by major product recalls.

Becerra has said he now wants to be California’s “healthcare governor,” a mantle outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom tried to claim upon taking office in 2019.

Becerra’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Before becoming HHS secretary, Becerra served as California’s attorney general and sued the first Trump administration more than 100 times, leading a coalition of states against GOP efforts to gut the ACA. He also started a unit in his office focused solely on healthcare. During Becerra’s tenure, his office reached a $575 million antitrust settlement with the California hospital system Sutter Health, pursued pharmaceutical companies that delayed generic drugs, and helped block a Trump administration rule that let employers choose whether to cover .

Voters often regard decades of experience in government as a negative, Peterson said. But for the job of running the nation’s most populous state and the world’s fourth-largest economy, he added, “I think there are a lot of people out there who would like to have somebody who actually has run a big enterprise.”

In , Becerra has said California should maintain state-funded Medicaid coverage for immigrants without legal status. He is also a longtime supporter of implementing single-payer healthcare, though in recent interviews he has said it needs to be addressed at the federal level.

Amy Acton, Running for Governor in Ohio

Acton ran Ohio’s health department from February 2019 to June 2020.

During the first months of the pandemic, Acton appeared at daily news conferences with the state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, that were jokingly dubbed “.” She earned fans with her calm and positive demeanor while explaining her approach to keeping covid at bay.

But she also attracted critics with her recommendations to stay at home, mask up, and shut down some businesses to curb the virus’ spread. Protesters even showed up at her home.

Acton’s Republican opponent in the governor’s race, Vivek Ramaswamy, has labeled her “Dr. Lockdown” on social media. His criticism of her role in shutting down businesses could prove effective with the economy at the top of many people’s minds, said Christopher Devine, a University of Dayton political science professor.

“It’s a double-edged sword, because she also really upset some people,” Devine said of Acton’s time as the health director during the pandemic.

He said that is a tricky attack for Ramaswamy to pursue, though, because DeWine — still the sitting governor and a popular conservative figure — endorsed the covid measures Acton recommended, granting her emergency powers to sign the orders, and has since said he takes all responsibility for those actions.

For her part, Acton has done little on the campaign trail to highlight her time as the state’s public health director. Instead, she has focused more on healthcare affordability, highlighting the Trump-led cuts to Medicaid and the scaled-back subsidies for ACA plans that have resulted in dropping coverage in the state.

“I hear from families across Ohio that healthcare costs are rising and they just can’t keep up,” Acton said in an emailed statement. “That’s why I will fight to protect and expand access, reduce the price of prescription drugs, forgive medical debt holding Ohioans back, and lower premiums.”

Abdul El-Sayed, Running for U.S. Senate in Michigan

El-Sayed — who ran the health departments in the city of Detroit and Wayne County, Michigan — is one of two leading Democratic candidates for Senate. The primary is Aug. 4.

El-Sayed, a progressive, is facing off against Haley Stevens, a four-term congresswoman. They are vying to run against Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a former congressman, for the Senate seat held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters.

From 2015 to 2017, El-Sayed ran the Detroit Health Department, which and privatized as part of the city’s 2013 bankruptcy. In his role, he led efforts to test Detroit schools for lead in the wake of the Flint water crisis and provide free eyeglasses to children in public schools.

From 2022 until 2025, he ran the health department in Wayne County, the state’s most populous county, which includes Detroit. In that job, he initiated a program to retire medical debt for thousands of residents and make naloxone available in public areas to reverse the effects of opioid overdoses.

In an interview with Ñî¹óåú´«Ã½Ò•îl Health News, El-Sayed said his public health experience helped him become an effective communicator and challenge corporations and the role they play in healthcare.

“Politics have become overrun by big money and corporations, and my training and background in public health has taught me to think about that and push back against it,” he said.

El-Sayed, who did not practice medicine after completing his residency and is not licensed to do so, has faced criticism from some in his party for calling himself a doctor.  

El-Sayed, who has endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), supports “Medicare for All,” a policy favored by many progressives that would make more people eligible for the federal health program for people who are 65 and older or disabled.

David Dulio, a professor of political science at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan, said that the broader economy, Trump’s tariffs, and trade are eclipsing healthcare this year as top concerns for voters in the state. But he added that “progressive stances such as Medicare for All are attractive in the Democratic primary electorate.”

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