Morning Briefing
Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations
Different Takes: Lessons On Finding The Very Best Vaccine; Lack Of Data Severely Hampers Progress
We may have a vaccine for Covid-19 by late this fall. By winter, we could have several. And if all goes as planned, each vaccine will be accompanied by data demonstrating that it reduces the risk of developing Covid-19, the clinical syndrome caused by infection with the novel coronavirus. But we won鈥檛 know which of these vaccines is more effective at preventing Covid-19, or have much idea if one or more of them reduce the risk of a person becoming an asymptomatic carrier of the virus. We also won鈥檛 know if the duration of immunity is similar between the vaccines, or if the side effects are equally tolerable. (Peter B. Bach, 9/24)
Eight months into the pandemic, states and counties around the country are struggling to track the spread of the virus through routine, reliable testing of representative members of their communities. Efforts to help hospitals and public health systems by modeling the covid-19-related demand for intensive care have been stymied by this fact: There is insufficient information available about the duration of stays in intensive care units in the United States. And few jurisdictions provide specific data on where their epidemiologists determine transmission is occurring, making it difficult to identify areas that can reopen safely or health-care facilities that need to bolster their prevention measures. (Marc Lipsitch and Yonatan Grad, 9/24)
Lately I鈥檝e found myself thinking about Trofim Lysenko. Who? Lysenko was a Soviet agronomist who decided that modern genetics was all wrong, indeed contrary to Marxist-Leninist principles. He even denied that genes existed, while insisting that long-discredited views about evolution were actually right. Real scientists marveled at his ignorance. But Joseph Stalin liked him, so Lysenko鈥檚 views became official doctrine, and scientists who refused to endorse them were sent to labor camps or executed. Lysenkoism became the basis for much of the Soviet Union鈥檚 agricultural policy, eventually contributing to the disastrous famines of the 1930s. Does all of this sound a bit familiar given recent events in America? (Paul Krugman, 9/24)
In mid-March, schools across the country shut down. My 7-year-old son took it well; life went on. We spent some time early in the pandemic hiking, playing soccer, and even skiing a bit in Vermont, where we live. As weeks of isolating ourselves turned into months, new behaviors emerged in him. (Jason Kahn, 9/25)
The fight against COVID-19 is far from over, but we are starting to see signs of significant progress. Across the country, we are seeing 11 new cases per 100,000 people per day, down from our peak of 20 per 100,000 in August. While this is a sign of improvement, we need to remember that we've been in this position -- twice before. (Dr. Bechara Choucair and Dr. Jay Bhatt, 9/24)
After a late summer lull, virus cases are increasing again as colleges and schools reopen, and the media are declaring a 鈥渢hird wave.鈥 While another surge is possible, most new cases are among younger people and seem to be relatively mild.The lockdown-loving media luxuriate in studies based on virus models that report bad news. They got another dopamine rush Tuesday when researchers from the University of North Carolina, University of Washington, Indiana University and Davidson College published a study linking the reopening of college campuses to 3,200 more cases a day in the U.S. (9/24)