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Wednesday, May 30 2018

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Hurricane Maria's Death Toll In Puerto Rico 70 Times Higher Than Official Government Estimate: Study

The devastating storm claimed 4,645 lives, according to a new study published in The New England Journal Of Medicine. The government's estimate of 64 deaths was a dramatic undercount, said the researchers, who based their figures on a significantly higher death rate during the three months after the hurricane than in the previous year.

Nearly 5,000 people died聽in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria, more than 70 times more than the official government death toll, according to a new study from The New England Journal of Medicine. The study, released Tuesday, calls the official government estimate a "substantial underestimate" while saying that an adjusted statistic could point to as many as 5,740 more deaths than the official estimate. (Wise, 5/29)

If the analysis is correct, it means that for every hurricane-related death that's currently on the books, another 70 fatalities in the U.S. territory have gone uncounted. "Our results indicate that the official death count of 64 is a substantial underestimate of the true burden of mortality after Hurricane Maria," researchers concluded in a study published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. (Kaplan and Khan, 5/29)

A research team led by scientists at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health didn't simply attempt to count dead bodies in the wake of the powerful storm. Instead, they surveyed randomly chosen households and asked the occupants about their experiences. From that approach, they concluded that between Sept. 20 and Dec. 31, 2017, there were 4,645 "excess deaths" 鈥 that is, deaths that would not have occurred if the island hadn't been plunged into a prolonged disaster following the devastating storm. (Harris, 5/29)

"Indirect deaths resulting from worsening of chronic conditions or from delayed medical treatments may not be captured on death certificates," researchers said in the study. They calculated 4,645 more people died in the three months after Maria compared with the same period in 2016. One of the researchers, Rafael Irizarry of Harvard University, told the AP that the estimate is uncertain because of its limited size, but that the study still provides valuable information, including how some people died. (5/29)

Under pressure, the government announced in December that all deaths that occurred after Maria hit would be reviewed and that people who died either directly or indirectly from the storm and its aftermath would be included in a revised tally. The government commissioned a review by researchers at the Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University, who had promised an initial report in May. But that analysis has barely begun. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e still acquiring data,鈥 said Dr. Lynn R. Goldman, the school鈥檚 dean. The study will use the territory鈥檚 vital records and information from funeral homes, the medical system and the larger public. (Fink, 5/29)

鈥淭his is something a lot of folks knew was woefully underreported,鈥 said Jason Ortiz, president of the CT Puerto Rican Agenda. 鈥淎nd having lots of family members, extended family and friends there, we knew there were a lot of people not getting care they needed and their deaths weren鈥檛 getting counted. (Rigg, 5/29)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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