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Morning Briefing

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Thursday, May 7 2020

Full Issue

Jobless Total Takes Another Brutal Hit With New 3.2 Million Americans Filing For Unemployment Last Week

For the seventh-straight week, more than 3 million jobless claims were filed, bringing the total number of Americans out of work during the coronavirus outbreak to over 33 million. Yet some economists see evidence that the U.S. labor losses are nearing the bottom of the curve. And many laid-off workers are optimistic that they can return to their pre-pandemic jobs, according to a new survey.

Nearly 3.2 million laid-off workers applied for unemployment benefits last week as the business shutdowns caused by the viral outbreak deepened the worst U.S. economic catastrophe in decades. Roughly 33.5 million people have now filed for jobless aid in the seven weeks since the coronavirus began forcing millions of companies to close their doors and slash their workforces. That is the equivalent of one in five Americans who had been employed back in February, when the unemployment rate had reached a 50-year low of just 3.5%. (Rugaber, 5/7)

That brings the total number of seasonally-adjusted initial claims filed since mid-March to 33.5 million. Initial claims are considered a proxy for layoffs or furloughs, and that level represents about 21% of the March labor force. These numbers are staggeringly high; weekly jobless claims were hovering in the 200,000s in the last few years before this crisis. (Tappe, 5/7)

Continuing claims, or the total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits, rose to a fresh record of 22.6 million in the week ended April 25. That, in turn, sent the insured unemployment rate, or the number receiving benefits as a share of the labor force based on eligibility, to 15.5%. Those data are reported with a one-week lag. California, Texas and Georgia reported the highest levels of unadjusted initial claims last week. Most states posted declines from the prior week. (Pickert, 5/7)

The data supported economists’ views of a protracted recovery of the economy, which is reeling from nationwide lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The economy shrank in the first quarter at the steepest pace since the Great Recession of 2007-2009. (Mutikani, 5/7)

Though the numbers remain stark, that was the lowest total since the week ended March 14, shortly after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus strain a pandemic. (Cox, 5/7)

The recent jobless claims figures suggest the wave of unemployment caused by the pandemic could crest as soon as this month. Still, the layoffs that already occurred are likely to cause the April unemployment rate, due out Friday, to jump to a high on records back to 1948 from a 50-year low as recently as February. (Morath and Guilford, 5/7)

The vast majority of laid-off or furloughed workers — 77 percent — expect to be rehired by their previous employer once the stay-at-home orders in their area are lifted, according to a nationwide Washington Post-Ipsos poll. Nearly 6 in 10 say it is “very likely” they will get their old job back, according to the poll, which was conducted April 27-May 4 among 928 workers who were laid off or furloughed since the outbreak began. But there’s concern that many of these workers are too optimistic about being rehired given how much uncertainty remains about health and business conditions in the year ahead. (Long and Guskin, 5/7)

A separate report by large payroll processor ADP on Wednesday said more than 20 million jobs were eliminated in April, at least temporarily. The federal government’s official employment summary is expected to show a similarly large wipeout when it’s released Friday morning. (Bartash, 5/7)

The coronavirus pandemic has brought wave after wave of catastrophic economic data: The worst decline in gross domestic product in a decade. The worst retail sales report on record. The worst week ever for unemployment claims, and then two more twice as bad as that. But even by those recent standards, the April jobs numbers could stand out. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the report, which the Labor Department will release on Friday, to show that U.S. payrolls fell by 22 million jobs last month — a decade’s worth of job gains, wiped out in weeks. (Casselman, 5/6)

In other news on pandemic's blows to the labor market —

Hispanics are nearly twice as likely as whites to have lost their jobs amid the coronavirus shutdowns, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, underlining that the pandemic is wreaking a disproportionate toll on some racial and ethnic groups. The poll finds that 20 percent of Hispanic adults and 16 percent of blacks report being laid off or furloughed since the outbreak began in the United States, compared with 11 percent of whites and 12 percent of workers of other races. (Jan and Clement, 5/6)

As a padlocked economy leaves millions of Americans without paychecks, lines outside food banks have stretched for miles, prompting some of the overwhelmed charities to seek help from the National Guard. New research shows a rise in food insecurity without modern precedent. Among mothers with young children, nearly one-fifth say their children are not getting enough to eat, according to a survey by the Brookings Institution, a rate three times as high as in 2008, during the worst of the Great Recession. The reality of so many Americans running out of food is an alarming reminder of the economic hardship the pandemic has inflicted. (DeParle, 5/6)

The embattled small business lending program at the center of the Trump administration’s economic rescue is running into a new set of challenges, one that threatens to saddle borrowers with huge debt loads, as banks begin the tricky task of proving the loans they extended actually met the government’s strict and shifting terms. With thousands of businesses preparing to ask for their eight-week loans to be forgiven, banks and borrowers are just now beginning to realize how complicated the program may turn out to be. Along with lawmakers, they are pushing the Treasury Department, which is overseeing the loan fund, to make forgiveness requirements easier to meet. (Rappeport and Flitter, 5/6)

The good news for Europe is that the worst of the pandemic is beginning to ease. This week deaths in Italy hit a nearly two-month low. And the German leader Angela Merkel announced that schools, day care centers and restaurants would reopen in the next few days.But the relief could be short-lived. The European Commission released projections on Wednesday that Europe’s economy will shrink by 7.4 percent this year. A top official told residents of the European Union, first formed in the aftermath of the Second World War, to expect the “deepest economic recession in its history.” (Stevis-Gridneff and Ewing, 5/6)

Restaurants are ramping back up as coronavirus lockdowns lift in U.S. states. As they do, they’re assessing both customers’ willingness to come back and how many workers they’ll need in kitchens and socially-distant dining rooms. One of the toughest calculations is proving to be just how far to go in staffing back up. Restaurant owners say they have little sense of how many consumers will feel safe to eat out again, and under what circumstances. (Haddon and Chen, 5/7)

The change in Botanical Heights started with a single restaurant. Before Olio, an Italian spot fashioned from a boarded-up old gas station, opened in 2012, its St. Louis neighborhood was known mostly as a place to buy illegal drugs. Nearly three-quarters of the lots on some streets were abandoned or demolished, said Brent Crittenden, the chief executive of UIC, the design and redevelopment firm that built Olio and several other restaurants in the neighborhood. By his count, one block was down to fewer than 10 residents. (Steinhauer and Wells, 5/7)

Kaiser Health News: Economic Blow Of The Coronavirus Hits America’s Already Stressed Farmers

Richard Oswald, still mourning the loss of his family’s homestead to flooding along the Missouri River, is planting corn and soybeans into ground that last year was feet deep underwater. It’s probably good, he said, to not have too much time to think. “Diversion therapy is the best treatment for farmers right now,” said the 70-year-old from Atchison County, Missouri. “Being busy helps.” (West, 5/7)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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