Morning Briefing
Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations
New York's Death Total Surpasses Previous Record, But Even Amid Grim Numbers Some See Glimmer Of Hope
New York state, epicenter of America鈥檚 coronavirus crisis, set another single-day record of COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, as veteran doctors and nurses voiced astonishment at the speed with which patients were deteriorating and dying. The number of known coronavirus infections in New York state alone approached 150,000 on Wednesday, even as authorities warned that the official death tally may understate the true number because it omits those who have perished at home. 鈥淓very number is a face, 鈥 said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ordered flags flown at half-staff across New York in memory of the victims. (Brown and Borter, 4/8)
For the fourth day in a row, more people died from the virus in New York than were admitted to hospitals for treatment. Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 779 people died on Tuesday from Covid-19, the respiratory illness caused by the pathogen. They include Richard Brodsky, a former state assemblyman from Westchester County. Mr. Cuomo said the rate of new hospitalizations has continued to slow, and that 586 people were admitted to hospitals in the state on Tuesday. The total death toll rose to 6,268, and nearly 150,000 people had tested positive for the virus. 鈥淲e鈥檙e flattening that curve, and if anything, we double-down now on our diligence,鈥 the Democratic governor said. (Vielkind, 4/8)
The District, Maryland and Virginia surpassed another grave milestone in the coronavirus crisis Wednesday, as the tally of confirmed cases surged beyond 10,600, and Maryland reported more than 20 deaths in a single day for just the second time. So far, 227 people had died in the two states and the District combined as of Wednesday morning, as hospitalizations for covid-19 continued to rise and experts said the area has yet to reach the peak of the pandemic. (Cox, Harden, Nirappil and Vozzella, 4/8)
On March 7, D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) announced the first known coronavirus case in the nation鈥檚 capital. As of April 6 鈥 one month after the first diagnosis 鈥 the city had more than 1,200 cases and more than 20 fatalities. With more infections reported each day, the District is one of many urban centers bracing for the possibility of becoming the next covid-19 hot spot. Over the past week, the city has been reporting about 100 cases every day, with a spike of more than 200 cases Wednesday alone. (Fowers and Nirappil, 4/8)
The U.S. total is now more than the totals of Italy, Spain and Germany combined, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The national death toll rose above 14,800 Thursday, a day after New York, New Jersey, Louisiana and Illinois reported their highest daily tallies. Globally, the number of confirmed cases approached 1.5 million, according to revised data from Johns Hopkins University. (Yoon, 4/9)
Most of us hadn鈥檛 heard the term 鈥渇latten the curve鈥 before mid-March, and just a few weeks later, it鈥檚 already out of date. The new catchphrase in this coronavirus pandemic is 鈥渟quash the curve.鈥 Or 鈥渜uash.鈥 Or 鈥渃rush.鈥 Pick your verb, the idea is the same: We should not end social distancing and reopen the economy until we know the infection rate is nearly zero. Many infectious-disease experts are publishing research showing that, to limit the number of deaths from covid-19, the disease the virus causes, it鈥檚 not enough to slow the spread of new infections 鈥 the process known as flattening the curve. (Achenbach, 4/8)
Despite having the nation鈥檚 largest population, frequent travel with China and the first confirmed case of community spread in the country, California has only 15,865 cases of Covid-19 and 374 deaths as of Tuesday, compared with 138,863 cases and 5,489 deaths in New York state, according to their public health departments. Experts attribute the relatively low numbers to California taking some of the earliest and most aggressive social-distancing measures in the country, as well as to its cities having less dense populations than New York鈥檚. But they caution that the state is still far from its projected peak in cases, which state officials currently put at mid-May, and that, if the situation takes a turn for the worse, the death toll in a state with 40 million people could be astronomical. (Lazo and Mai-Duc, 4/8)
The world began this week to see small but encouraging signs that concerted efforts to drastically change human behavior 鈥 to suspend daily routines by staying at home 鈥 are slowing the insidious spread of the novel coronavirus, which has killed tens of thousands and sickened more than a million others across several continents. But 鈥 a simple word that epidemiologists say cannot be emphasized enough 鈥 these early indications, while promising, must not be interpreted to mean that all will be well by summer鈥檚 first days. Although President Trump tweeted on Monday about a light at the end of a tunnel, the cautions of scientists and other government officials conjure one very, very long tunnel. (Barry, 4/8)
A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August.聽The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington had predicted a peak of 81,766 deaths in an update on Sunday.聽Public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have previously estimated that as many as 100,000 to 200,000聽Americans could die from the novel coronavirus.聽(Klar, 4/8)
Two states at the forefront of the coronavirus outbreak that has infected hundreds of thousands of people across the country are beginning to see infection rates slow as strict social distancing requirements show early results of paying off. Officials in Washington, the first state to see a confirmed COVID-19 case in the country, and neighboring Oregon say they are cautiously optimistic that the case curves in their states are beginning to bend downward. The number of new cases in both states has dropped for four consecutive days, and the most recent data shows new cases are just a fraction of what they had been at each state鈥檚 peak. (Wilson, 4/8)
When coronavirus cases began mounting in Seattle in early March, Lisa Brandenburg, president of UW Medicine鈥檚 hospitals and clinics, asked a colleague for projections on how many more patients she should plan for. His estimate came in several days later: More than 900 in a health system whose roughly 1,550 beds were almost always full. Ms. Brandenburg was stunned. Nearly a month later, the projected tidal wave of sick patients hasn鈥檛 materialized in the Seattle area or anywhere else in Washington. (Frosch and Parti, 4/9)
In another heartening sign, an emergency field hospital in Seattle meant to treat non-Covid-19 patients will be dismantled and sent to a state with a greater need, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said. 鈥淒on鈥檛 let this decision give you the impression that we are out of the woods,鈥 Mr. Inslee said Wednesday. 鈥淲e have to keep our guard up and continue to stay home unless conducting essential activities to keep everyone healthy.鈥 (Ansari, Lin and Norman, 4/9)
In February, family members gathered for a Chicago-area funeral. A family friend who had been out of state attended and was just a bit sick with mild respiratory symptoms. Before long, 16 people between the ages of 5 and 86 had been infected with the novel coronavirus (seven confirmed and nine probable), and three had died. The case study, published Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is one of the most detailed looks at how covid-19 moves through communities and shows how a single person can set off a chain reaction of infections. (Cha, 4/8)
Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, said Wednesday that there are encouraging signs that parts of the U.S. may be flattening their curves, but she warned that people shouldn't start going out and socially interacting. In an interview with Savannah Guthrie on the "TODAY" show, Birx said that California and Washington state began social distancing very early and that their "curves" 鈥 the lines on graphs projecting the number of people who will contract COVID-19, the disease associated with the virus, over time 鈥 are "persistently flat, and that's very encouraging." (Shabad, 4/8)
Dr. Zeke Emanuel, one of the key architects of the Affordable Care Act and a special adviser to the director general of the World Health Organization, said on ABC News鈥 "Powerhouse Politics" podcast that he doesn鈥檛 anticipate life fully returning to normal for another 18 months, based on guidance from health professionals in the Trump administration. "The kind of normal where we go traveling, we go to restaurants, we go to concerts, we go to religious services, we go on cruises, until we have a vaccine that protects everyone. That's 18 months, it's not going to be sooner," Emanuel told ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl and Political Director Rick Klein. (Cunningham, 4/8)
Things are still getting worse. The US death toll crossed 14,000 on Wednesday, with a record 1,858 deaths reported just on Tuesday... But the main model used by the White House and pretty much everyone else was updated Wednesday to show far fewer projected US deaths from Covid-19 -- down to 60,415 people by August, from the 82,000 the model showed on Tuesday (which was already lower than previous projections). (LeBlanc, 4/9)
The human cost of the novel coronavirus pandemic is still rising worldwide, but infections may be leveling off in Italy, Spain and New York, which lost nearly 800 people to the disease Tuesday. U.S. officials at both the state and federal levels are urging people to remain vigilant about social distancing even as its adoption appears to be flattening the curve of new cases. (Yang, 4/8)
Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam and his top aides were having a meeting about the coronavirus when the discussion turned to neckties. The governor said he had read a study in a medical journal showing that ties worn by doctors at hospitals can host harmful germs and help spread disease. So Northam issued an informal edict to his staff: Keep the ties in the closet until further notice. (Suderman, 4/9)