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The contentious and confusing debate in recent weeks over coronavirus booster shots has exposed a fundamental weakness in the United States’ ability to respond to a public health crisis: The data is a mess. How many people have been infected at this point? No one knows for sure, in part because of insufficient testing and incomplete reporting. How many fully vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided to track only a fraction of them. When do inoculated people need booster shots? American officials trying to answer that have had to rely heavily on data from abroad. (Achenbach and Abutaleb, 9/30)

On the heels of the deadliest month of the pandemic for pregnant people yet, Dr. Manisha Gandhi told CNBC that she’s not optimistic about Covid-19 this winter. “To be dealing with this surge and taking care of really sick women, has just really taken a toll,” said Gandhi, who is chief of maternal-fetal medicine at Texas Children’s hospital. “I’m still really afraid this is just another lull before another potential surge.” (DeCiccio, 9/30)

Daily COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations have each declined by about 30% since late August, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of Sept. 27, the country was logging a seven-day moving average of 110,232 new daily cases, down 30.9% from 159,515 on Aug. 27, whereas new COVID-related hospitalization dropped 31% from 12,330 to 8,507 over the same time period. Dr. Gregory Poland, infectious disease expert and director of the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, anticipates that as COVID-19 case rates fall, fewer Americans will take precautions against infection, resulting in a potential surge of respiratory illnesses come winter. (Rivas, 9/30)

The United States is on the cusp of surpassing 700,000 coronavirus deaths, half of them in the last nine months alone as the delta variant drove a brutal surge across the weary nation. The U.S. reached 600,000 deaths in June, when daily deaths had dropped to under 400 amid hope that the crisis, at least at home, was near an end. Vaccines were widely available to all American adults and teens. For free. Three months and 100,000 deaths later, 2,000 Americans are dying per day. And millions have lost interest in the fight. Football stadiums are packed with maskless fans, some in states that ban vaccination and mask requirements. (Hayes, 10/1)

A child under the age of 10 died in eastern Virginia on Wednesday from COVID-19, the second fatal juvenile case this week in the region, health officials confirmed. A health department spokesperson, Larry Hill, told the Richmond Times-Dispatch he could not provide any further information about the child. The child’s death occurred shortly after that of 10-year-old Teresa Sperry, who died Monday from the virus. According to officials, they are the 12th and 13th juvenile deaths in the state since the beginning of the pandemic. (9/30)

Tennessee's top health official, Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey, told reporters Wednesday she is "cautiously optimistic" that the state was easing out of its latest COVID-19 surge. Tennessee had a rolling seven-day average of 3,526 cases Tuesday, down from an average of 9,411 on Sept. 11. Total hospitalizations fell to 2,636, a decrease from 3,831 on Sept. 9. (Tamburin and Rau, 9/30)

A recent Chronicle analysis found that during this year’s surge fueled by the delta variant, California counties that voted heavily for then-President Donald Trump in the November election saw higher death rates than their more Democratic counterparts — a trend mirrored on the national level, dubbed “red COVID” by the New York Times. Now, new data shows the discrepancy in California has grown in September. Since June 21, the COVID-19 death rate in red-voting counties has outpaced that of blue counties, a trend that continued through September even though overall coronavirus case rates and deaths have dropped off since mid-August, a Chronicle analysis shows. (Echeverria and Neilson, 9/30)

COVID-19 hospitalizations are declining in Florida. But the situation is still bleak for many health care workers, who are watching patients admitted during the delta surge die after weeks of battling the disease. Dr. Syed Zaidi, practices internal medicine, as an independent contractor at hospitals in Brandon and Bradenton. In his own words, he shared his experience treating severely ill COVID-19 patients, most of whom are unvaccinated, and said that the past couple of months have been some of the hardest of his life. (Colombini, 9/30)

Kentuckians can now tap into the state’s COVID-19 website to help them search for health care facilities that provide monoclonal antibody treatment. Supplies of the therapy are limited because of high demand nationally, Dr. Steven Stack, Kentucky’s public health commissioner, said Thursday. For people infected with COVID-19, the treatment can help give their immune system a boost, helping reduce the likelihood of hospitalization, he said. (10/1)

Despite new federal supply limits, Georgia has received enough shipments of monoclonal antibodies to treat patients newly exposed or infected by Covid-19, state officials said Thursday. Concerns about supply shortages of these powerful antibody drugs have emerged in states that are heavy users of the treatment, including Georgia. (Miller, 9/30)